Picks, predictions for Utah vs. Kansas State college football game

Specific predictions and breakdowns of key matchups to watch for during Utah's Week 13 bout against Kansas State

Utah Utes quarterback Byrd Ficklin (15) carries the ball for a 67-yard touchdown during the first half at McLane Stadium. | Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Looking to keep its Big 12 championship game hopes alive, Utah returns to Rice-Eccles Stadium for a matchup against Kansas State.

The Utes (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) can still earn a trip to Arlington, Texas, in December with some outside help, though they'll need to take care of their own business first in order to play for a conference title and subsequently, a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Utah rolls into Week 13 having won five of its last six games by an average margin of 30 points. It ranks No. 6 in the Football Bowl Subdivision in scoring with 41.1 points per game, in large part because of a stout rushing attack that checks in at No. 2 in the FBS in yards per game (278.4 per game) after racking up 380 rushing yards in a 55-28 win at Baylor in Week 12.

The Wildcats (5-5, 4-3 Big 12) visit Salt Lake City off the heels of a 14-6 win at Oklahoma State, in which five turnovers from the Cowboys' offense gave Avery Johnson and company just enough wiggle room to grind out a victory in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

Here are three predictions for Saturday's game.

More doses of Byrd Ficklin

Devon Dampier is expected to play after his name didn't appear on Wednesday's availability report, though don't be surprised if true freshman Byrd Ficklin takes a decent share of snaps under center for specific quarterback run plays.

Ficklin's vision, power and speed often provide the Utes offense a much-needed spark when moving the chains doesn't come easily. The 6-foot-3 Muskogee, Oklahoma, native is averaging an impressive 9.4 yards per carry and has three scoring runs from 60-plus yards out this season — two of which came in the 27-point win over the Bears.

Nov 1, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Byrd Ficklin (15). | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Ficklin's been efficient through the air as well, albeit on limited attempts. He's 21-of-34 (61.8%) for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns through nine appearances so far, including his first career start in Utah's 53-7 triumph over Colorado on Oct. 25.

"Byrd maybe has a little more zip on the ball, tad more accuracy at times, but they are different types of throwers from the pocket," Whittingham says as he compares his quarterbacks' throwing styles. "And they're both outstanding, but just different."

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Dampier play through his nagging injury, given his understanding of offensive coordinator Jason Beck's system and his overall importance to the team; but there'll be opportunities for Ficklin to gain valuable reps and showcase what he can do with the ball in his hands.

Prediction: Ficklin records at least 10 pass/rush attempts combined and finishes with over 50 rushing yards.

Utes rush for over 250 yards

There's not much indication that Kansas State will be the team to snap Utah's six-game streak of recording 200 or more rushing yards, considering the Utes excel at off-tackle run plays and the Wildcats struggle to defend them.

Utah gains 7.1 yards per carry on outside run plays, trailing only Oregon and Arkansas in that category, while Kansas State allows 5.3 yards per carry on those same designs, checking in at No. 95 among FBS defenses according to Pro Football Focus. Essentially, no one, with the exception of Texas Tech, has been able to contain the Utes on the edges this season.

Utah will strive to control the clock and tempo of the game against Kansas State, and achieving both those goals starts with being productive on the ground. The Wildcats have been solid defending the run lately, with their last five opponents averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. But only two of those teams rank in the top 10 of the Big 12 in rushing yards per game.

Prediction: The Utes average just under 7 yards per carry and tally 280 rushing yards against the Wildcats.

Avery Johnson struggles without top receiving option

The Wildcats won't have their No. 1 wide receiver, Jayce Brown, for Saturday's game after he sustained a season-ending injury in their win over the Cowboys last week. Brown leads the squad with 712 receiving yards on the season, over 200 more than anyone else in Kansas State's pass-catching corps.

Slowing down the Wildcats' air attack will still require the Utes' pass rush to get home and cause havoc for Johnson when he's in the pocket. Per PFF, Johnson's grade when kept clean ranks No. 22 in the country, while his under-pressure mark checks in at No. 139. If John Henry Daley and company can't apply pressure at a consistent rate, Utah's man-to-man secondary will be put under more pressure to not only stick to Kansas State's wide receivers but also defend Johnson when he decides to scramble.

Kansas State's Avery Johnson (2). | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Not to mention, one of Utah's top cornerbacks, Elijah "Scooby" Davis, will sit out the first half of Saturday's game due to the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty he picked up at the end of the Baylor game.

Assuming the Utes, who rank No. 3 in the Big 12 with 27 total sacks, get after Johnson and make him uncomfortable with their blitz packages, the Wildcats won't have the easiest time moving the ball through the air on Saturday.

Prediction: Utah holds Johnson to under 200 passing yards.

Pick: Utah 41, Kansas State 20

Utah remains unstoppable on the offensive side of the ball and doesn't give Kansas State very many opportunities to respond. The Utes' physicality in the trenches proves to be too much for the upset-minded Wildcats to handle as the game wears on, though Johnson and company find ways to keep it competitive in the first half while taking advantage of Utah's short-handed secondary.