What Utah's odds to win Big 12 say about the conference's power dynamics

When Utah joined the Big 12 in 2024, the conference had a reputation for being the most unpredictable among the power leagues. It seemed like any team in the conference — whether it was last year's basement dweller or runner-up in the standings — had a chance to win it all going into any given season.

Remember when Baylor went 2-7 in 2020 and then won the conference with a 12-2 record in 2021? What about the following year, when TCU got as high as No. 2 in the media poll and went 13-2 following a 5-7 showing the season prior? Surely no one's forgotten about Arizona State's turnaround from 3-9 in 2023 to College Football Playoff participants in 2024.

Well, just two years into the Utes' membership, that parity fans were once captivated by every Saturday appears to be in risk of fading into a clear disparity.

According to the latest conference championship odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Texas Tech's grip on the Big 12 is expected to get tighter as college sports heads further down the path of revenue-sharing and NIL. Coming off their first conference title, the heavily-funded Red Raiders are the clear favorites to go back-to-back, as they sit with -115 odds to win the conference in 2026.

The team with the second-best odds? That would be Utah, with a sizable gap in between it and Texas Tech at +700 odds going into Morgan Scalley's first year at the helm of the Utes.

Essentially, FanDuel would see it as a shock if Brett Yormark handed the Big 12 trophy to anyone not named Joey McGuire following the conference title game in Arlington, Texas, in December.

Scheduling has some to do with the way oddsmakers view the Red Raiders going into 2026, but no one's acting like the massive war chest down in Lubbock, Texas, doesn't have anything to do with the perception around Texas Tech, either. The fact that McGuire and company won't see Utah or BYU in the regular season is just an added bonus.

The efforts Cody Campbell and The Matador Club (Texas Tech's NIL collective) have done to ensure the Red Raiders' roster is loaded with top-end talent has much more to do with the shifting power dynamics in the Big 12 than anything else. Campbell has reportedly helped raise over $60 million through the program's NIL collective and has donated some of his own money toward upgrading Texas Tech's facilities over the past few years.

Safe to say, the Red Raiders put all that bread to good use this past season. Texas Tech went 12-2 and climbed as high as No. 4 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, culminating in a College Football Playoff appearance as the No. 4 seed.

After reeling in another top-10 transfer portal class, Texas Tech enters 2026 as the favorite to be the Big 12's first repeat champion since Oklahoma won three conference championships in a row from 2017-19. The Red Raiders' win total on FanDuel sits at 11.5 as well; for comparison, Utah's win total has been set at 8.5

It's unclear if anyone else in the league is going to make it an arms race with Texas Tech any time soon. Utah appears to be near the finish line on finalizing a unique private equity deal that would infuse roughly $500 million into the athletic department, but it remains to be seen exactly how that relationship with the school and Otro Capital (the private equity firm partnering with Utah) unfolds over the coming years.

What Scalley and company do have control over, though, is the product they put together on the field. Utah brings back several key pieces from its 11-2 squad and adds more talent to surround Devon Dampier in the passing game for 2026. Along with a favorable schedule and new coaching staff, there are a few reasons for Utes fans to be optimistic about their team's chances of competing for its first Big 12 title.

Odds to Win Big 12 in 2026

Texas Tech: -115
Utah: +700
BYU: +750
Houston: +1800
TCU: +2000
Baylor: +2200
Kansas State: +2200
Arizona: +2200
Arizona State: +2500
Oklahoma State: +3500
Kansas: +3500
UCF: +4500
West Virginia: +6500
Cincinnati: +6500
Iowa State: +7000
Colorado: +10000

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.