Virginia Basketball NCAA Tournament Bracketology Update Heading Into Final Weekend

Where does Virginia stand in the latest bracketology heading into the final weekend of the regular season?

Feb 18, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Ryan Odom calls a play against the Virginia Cavaliers in the first half at McCamish Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The final weekend of the regular season has arrived in college basketball and the resumes for every team is almost complete.

Some teams have more on the line than others heading into this weekend and into the conference tournament and there is no better example of this than the matchup between Virginia and Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers have locked up the No. 2 seed in the ACC Tournament and are likely going to be a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well. The Hokies on the other hand are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament and need a win in tomorrow's rivalry game.

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Virginia has been in line for a No. 4 seed for the majority of the season and that is not changing heading into the final game. ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects Virginia as a No. 4 seed in the South Region and their opponent is No. 13 seed CA Baptist. In the South Region, UConn is the projected No. 1 seed while Duke is the projected No. 1 overall seed in the Tournament.

How can UVA's fortune change in the conference tournament? If Virginia were to win the conference tournament, there is a chance that they could be bumped up to a No. 3 seed, but I don't think there is a path for them to get higher than that. If the Cavaliers were to not win a game next week, there is a scenario where they fall to the five seed line.

Virginia is 99-62 all-time vs. Virginia Tech, including a 43-14 mark in Charlottesville, in a series that dates to 1914-15. Virginia Tech defeated Virginia 85-85 in triple overtime in the ACC opener on Dec. 31 in Blacksburg. UVA and VT have split the two-game series between the teams in each of the last four seasons. The Cavaliers are 2-3 in the last five games against the Hokies and 4-6 in the last 10.

Ben Hammond scored 30 points to lead Virginia Tech to a 95- 85 triple overtime home win over Virginia on Dec. 31. Malik Thomas scored a season-high 26 points and Thijs De Ridder tallied 22 points, 13 rebounds and five assists for UVA. Christian Gurdak (17 points, 19 rebounds) and Amani Hansberry (17 points, 15 rebounds) added double-doubles for Tech. The Hokies outscored the Cavaliers 40-30 in the three overtimes to secure the half point in the Commonwealth Clash. UVA attempted a school-record 45 3-pointers in the loss. Virginia Tech out-rebounded UVA 60-54 and went 28 of 41 from the free throw line