Virginia Basketball: Three statistical storylines to watch during the 2026-2027 season

Last year, Virginia went 30-6, finishing second in the ACC in its first year under Coach Ryan Odom. The Cavaliers also reached the ACC title game and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.

All eyes now turn towards their new roster additions, as graduated architects of the past move on to the NBA and other professional avenues. The big question is obvious — how will Virginia perform in 2026-27?

Here are three statistical areas that are worth keeping tabs on.

JPJ — a tough place to play

Last season, Virginia went 16-1 at home. The lone defeat was an 85-80 loss to North Carolina, in which Johann Grunloh and Malik Thomas combined to make nine of their 19 attempts from the field. If a few plays had gone the other way, an undefeated home record could have become reality.

This year, only Duke, Louisville and Kentucky present a major challenge to the Cavaliers at home. And given how experienced Virginia is, it is not impossible for it to match those 16 home wins from the 2025-26 campaign. It will be difficult — but the Cavaliers do have a chance to go undefeated at John Paul Jones Arena for the first time since 2015-16.

Virginia has only gone undefeated at home once this century. If Odom’s Cavaliers manage to do it in 2026-27, it would be especially impressive given that multiple elite teams will be visiting JPJ.

Turnovers

Despite Virginia’s success in 2025-26, it actually lost the season-wide turnover margin. The Cavaliers coughed up 389 turnovers (10.8 per game) while only forcing 376 (10.4 per game). Those turnovers rarely came back to bite Virginia — it outscored opponents by an average of 11.6 points per game — but on occasion, they were crucial in the result of ACC heavyweight battles.

The Cavaliers will likely experience a more difficult ACC road slate this season. Duke, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson and Syracuse usually come with a raucous home crowd — and an elite basketball team.

Free throws

Opponents outperformed Virginia at the charity stripe last year, netting 19 more free throws on five fewer attempts. The Cavaliers’ .728 free throw percentage is not horrible, but it certainly played a role in close games. Only Dallin Hall and Jacari White hit more than 78 percent of their attempts.

In Virginia’s NCAA Tournament loss to Tennessee, the Cavaliers only made six of their 11 free throw attempts. The Volunteers did shoot 14 more attempts — downing them at a 76 percent clip — but even so, every point is essential in a 79-72 loss.

Odom has often mentioned that he wants his team to sharpen up ball security and free throw accuracy. Improvement in those areas could lead to a further postseason finish for Virginia in 2026-27.

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