Final Preseason SP+ Rankings: Where is Virginia to Start The Season?

Virginia is not projected to be among the top teams in the ACC per SP+

Oct 12, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott (center) looks on fromt the field during a stoppage in play against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

2025 is going to be a big season for Tony Elliott and Virginia. The Cavaliers have added a massive transfer portal class, getting big additions in the second, the defensive line, the wide receiver group, and of course, quarterback. After not making a bowl game in Elliott's first three seasons, UVA is primed to return to the postseason for the first time since 2019.

It is not a given, though, and despite the big additions in the portal and what most consider to be the easiest schedule in the power four, most national analysts are still predicting Virginia to finish near the bottom of the ACC. They were picked to finish 14th in the preseason ACC Media Poll and in the final preseason SP+ rankings from ESPN's SP+, Virginia is not given an optimal projection.

Connelly projects Virginia as the No. 74 team in the country heading into the season, with the No. 83 projected offense, the No. 65 projected defense, and the No. 56 projected special teams unit. The only ACC teams with a lower projection are Wake Forest and Stanford.

Nov 9, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Xavier Brown (0) runs on his way to scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

How Open is the ACC Race?

Here is how SP+ sees the ACC race heading into the season:

1. Clemson (10th nationally)

2. Miami (14th)

3. SMU (19th)

4. Louisville (24th)

5. Florida State (39th)

6. Georgia Tech (41st)

7. Virginia Tech (42nd)

8. Duke (43rd)

9. NC State (46th)

10. Pittsburgh (51st)

11. North Carolina (53rd)

12. Syracuse (55th)

13. Boston College (62nd)

14. Cal (64th)

15. Virginia (74th)

16. Wake Forest (79th)

17. Stanford (88th)

Aug 31, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) celebrates with Cavaliers running back Kobe Pace (5) after scoring a touchdown against the Richmond Spiders during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

While there seems to be external doubt about where the Cavaliers are going to finish in the ACC, Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott sounded very optimistic about his team at ACC media days:

"There's a lot of excitement surrounding this year's team. I absolutely love being around our young men. Another huge thank you to our administration, Dr. Williams, our donor base and staff for contributing the resources, the time and the effort to assemble the deepest and most complete roster that we've had in four seasons.

Speaking of the staff, we're one of only six Power Four programs to return our entire staff. This off-season we added 54 new players. 32 of those through the transfer portal and 22 of those being high school signees. I'd also like to add that our staff has gone about building to this point, and we've done it the right way. Three years ago on the front end we made a decision to honor the commitments of the young men that were committed to the previous staff. We also decided to honor the commitments of the young men that were currently on the roster, to embrace them and work alongside them until graduation.

Our current roster is very balanced. 46 percent of our players are upperclassmen and 54 percent are underclassmen. With the addition of the players that we added in the transfer portal, we added 850 games of college football experience.

We held a lead in nine of our 12 games last season, and we're hopeful that the added depth and experience will help us in working towards closing out games in which we have a lead.

As a staff and administration, we're hard at work building a competitive roster. The scholar athletes are hard at work on the grounds in the classroom. In the spring we set a football record with a 3.23 team GPA, and as a program we've been above a 3.0 GPA five of the seven semesters we've been on the grounds. In our seven semesters, we've averaged 77 members of our team accessing a 3.0 or Above Club each semester. This season we have seven home games, four of which are within the first five weeks, and our staff and players are excited to see our outstanding fan base pack Scott Stadium and create an environment that makes it the hardest for opposing teams to play in."

Virginia opens their season on Aug. 30th against Coastal Carolina.