Virginia Football Left Out Of Newly Released Bowl Projections

Oct 12, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott reacts after a play against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Virginia Football has not made a bowl game in Tony Elliott's first three seasons, but based on their offseason activity, that seems to be the goal. Elliott has brought in 30 transfers this offseason and the Cavaliers have one of the most underrated transfer classes in the country and one of the top ones in the ACC. To top it all off, UVA has one of the most manageable schedules in the ACC. They avoid Clemson, Miami, SMU, and Georgia Tech this season, four teams that are projected to be among the best in the conference.

Despite all of that, not everyone is convinced that Elliott is going to be able to elevate this program to do that. New Bowl Projections from Athlon Sports have the Cavaliers left out of the postseason yet again.

Athlon also projected Virginia to have a near last place finish in the ACC.

"Virginia is coming off its best season (5-7) under coach Tony Elliott. However, with an 11-23 overall mark, the ‘25 campaign could be a make-or-break year for this staff. Fortunately for Elliott, the Cavaliers had a successful offseason with additions through the transfer portal to fortify the roster and make a push for six wins.

The list of impact transfers starts with quarterback Chandler Morris. The Texas native ranked seventh nationally (308.9 total yards a game) at North Texas in total offense a contest in ‘24 and should be the best quarterback for this program since Brennan Armstrong. North Carolina Central transfer J’Mari Taylor should team with Xavier Brown to form a solid one-two punch out of the backfield. Portal additions in Jayden Thomas (Notre Dame) and Jahmal Edrine (Purdue) restock a receiving corps looking to replace No. 1 target Malachi Fields. For this unit to take off, improvement is needed up front - a task made more difficult with a season-ending injury to tackle Monroe Mills in spring practice and a late transfer by Blake Steen.

Six starters return on a defense that allowed 30.8 points a contest in ACC play last year. Top safety Jonas Sanker will be missed, but the Cavaliers added help at every level through the portal. Adding talent and depth to the secondary was a priority, with several additions joining the team in the spring. Improving a pass rush that managed only 19 sacks last season is also crucial."

Sep 14, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott encourages his team during a change of possession against the Maryland Terrapins during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia has not been bowl eligible since going 6-6 after the 2021 season, but they have not actually played in a bowl game since making the Orange Bowl in 2019 after going 9-3 and losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship.

Yes, it has been that long.

However, the 247Sports Bowl Projections do not paint a good picture for Elliott's team in 2025. Even with the schedule and the transfer class, UVA is nowhere to be seen in the projections. That would be a disappointment considering how the Cavaliers have approached this offseason.

Right now at Fanduel Sportsbook, Virginia's win total is set at 6.5, and that seems reasonable. They open the season at home against Coastal Carolina, and the Chanticleers are not supposed to be one of the better teams in the Sun Belt. A telling game this season will be in week two, when Virginia goes on the road to face NC State. The Wolfpack are always tough to beat at home, but they have lost a lot of talent this offseason and are beatable. If Virginia can win that, a bowl game should be within reach.

William & Mary plus Stanford should be gimmes for the Cavaliers and at worst, they should be 3-1 to start the season. They will be underdogs at home vs Florida State, but the Seminoles have plenty of question marks as well and could be vulnerable to an upset away from Tallahassee. It is anyone's guess as to how they look this season.

Going on the road to beat Louisville might be too tough a task, but Virginia did almost clip the Cardinals last season. After a bye week, a home game against Washington State is not super intimidating considering their roster and coaching staff turnover this offseason, and then another interesting matchup on the road at North Carolina. How the Tar Heels will look under Bill Belichick is anyone's guess.

All four November games are winnable. Cal and Wake Forest are projected to be among the worst teams in the league, though the Cal game is on the road. Duke on the road will be tough and then to finish the season, Virginia has their annual rivalry game with Virginia Tech. The path is there for Elliott and the Cavaliers to make a bowl game, but they have to prove it on the field.

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