Who Would Be Virginia's Permanent Opponents Under Proposed ACC Football Scheduling Model?
The biggest news out of the Atlantic Coast Conference this week is that the conference could be abandoning the Atlantic and Coastal divisions that have separated the ACC in half since 2005 in favor of a new football scheduling model.
While there has been no decision made yet, there seems to be some strong support from the conference's athletic directors for a model that would dissolve the ACC's divisions (and each team's obligations to play each of its six divisional rivals annually) in favor of a "3-5-5" scheduling model that would see each team have three permanent opponents within the conference that would be on the schedule every season. The remaining five ACC games would be rotated between the other ten conference opponents each year such that every team in the conference will play every other ACC team at least once every two seasons (five teams one season, five teams the next season).
Without the divisional lines, it will no longer be the Atlantic and Coastal champions competing for the ACC Championship, but instead, it will likely be the top two teams in the ACC standings (based on winning percentage) qualifying for the ACC Championship Game, similar to the way the Big 12 currently operates.
The conference's leaders and school ADs are still taking time to deliberate as the earliest these changes could take effect is the 2023 season, so the ACC is making sure to examine potential effects regarding TV deals and other consequences of such a massive scheduling overhaul.
In the meantime, it does not hurt to ponder what this could mean for the future of Virginia football scheduling.
Under the current model, Virginia has to play at its six Coastal rivals (Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech) as well as Louisville as a recurring opponent from the Atlantic division every season. UVA only plays the other six teams in the Atlantic Division once every six seasons. Under the proposed 3-5-5 model, Virginia will face every ACC team at least once every two seasons, with three permanent opponents on the schedule every year. Who should those three opponents be?
The first two are easy: Virginia Tech and North Carolina.
Both Virginia and Virginia Tech will be eager to keep this game on the schedule and in its usual place at the end of the regular season. Having the Cavaliers and Hokies battle for the Commonwealth Cup in the regular season finale is a non-negotiable.
Similarly, UVA and UNC ought to be in favor of continuing to renew the South's Oldest Rivalry every season. The Cavaliers and Tar Heels have met 126 times in a highly-competitive series that dates back to 1892. Keeping this rivalry going should be a priority in the ACC's new scheduling model.
The one potential obstacle standing in the way of having Virginia and North Carolina as a permanent matchup is the scenario in which the ACC puts the four North Carolina schools in a pod of permanent opponents. North Carolina, Duke, NC State, and Wake Forest could each have each other as their three yearly opponents in an annual Tobacco Road battle royale. While that is an attractive option, the fact that these four teams will already be playing each other at least every other season should make this four-team rivalry setup unnecessary and encourage the conference to allow each of these teams to preserve their annual rivalries with other out-of-state ACC opponents (i.e. Virginia-North Carolina and NC State-Clemson).
Virginia's third opponent is very debatable and will likely come down to availability based on the rest of the league's matchups. Louisville is currently a permanent opponent for Virginia but this pairing never made much sense since the Cardinals were given to the Cavaliers as a "rival" when they joined the ACC from the Big East in 2014. The move only made sense at the time for substitution purposes, as Louisville replaced Maryland as Virginia's second rival after the Terrapins departed for the Big Ten that same year. UVA and Louisville are not natural rivals and, despite a more entertaining rivalry in basketball that the Cavaliers have certainly enjoyed dominating, there is not much energy or bad blood in the rivalry on the football side of things and there seems to be little reason for these two teams to meet every season.
Arguments could be made for any of Virginia's soon-to-be former Coastal rivals: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pittsburgh. Duke could be an attractive option for Virginia given the schools' close proximity (relative to other ACC teams) as well as their intense rivalry in other sports. The Cavaliers would certainly enjoy keeping the Blue Devils on their schedule on an annual basis considering their recent dominance in the series. UVA has won the last seven games and is 16-6 against Duke since 2000, including a 48-0 victory in the 2021 season. The all-time series, however, is very even with Virginia holding a 40-33 edge in the rivalry dating back to 1890.
Virginia has developed a more recent rivalry with Pittsburgh especially as the Cavaliers and Panthers have battled for control of the Coastal Division in recent seasons. But, without the Coastal in play, there is not much to connect the two programs.
UVA could also try to revitalize old rivalries with some of the original ACC members like Clemson, Wake Forest, or NC State. Meetings with these teams have been few and far between since the inception of the conference's divisions nearly two decades ago.
Of course, all of this will come down to how the ACC chooses to organize each team's permanent opponents under the new 3-5-5 model. At this point, Virginia should certainly keep Virginia Tech as a yearly opponent and North Carolina ought to be on the schedule annually as well, but UVA's third opponent could end up being any of the other ACC programs.
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