Way-too-early 2026 opponent preview: Florida State

The most iconic game of Virginia’s historic 2025 season was undoubtedly the 46-48 double overtime win over No. 8 Florida State. An instant, delirious field storm went ultra-viral online as students, alumni, families and fans celebrated a win for the ages.

The Seminoles are in the market for revenge.

In 2026, the Cavaliers head to Tallahassee, Fla. for a rematch of last year’s unforgettable bout. However, these will be two very different teams. Virginia is committing to the run game, while Florida State faces uncertainty with its new quarterback, but still features star receiver Duce Robinson — plus running back Quintrevion Wisner from Texas and other intriguing transfers.

Will McBroom, Sports Director for V89 Sports, shared his thoughts with UVA On SI.

What is the temperature check on the Seminoles’ 2026 campaign?

“Heading into the 2026 season, any sense of enthusiasm for Florida State football amongst the fanbase has morphed into monotony,” McBroom said, “with the lack of emotional investment from the fans mirroring the lack of monetary investment from those in charge. The Seminoles cut spending on the roster and are currently set to only outspend two of their Power Four opponents on their 2026 schedule, those being Pitt and Boston College.”

McBroom also explained that the decision to keep Coach Mike Norvell has contributed to the fanbase viewing 2026 as a “mail-it-in season.” However, McBroom and others would agree that this is still a highly talented Seminoles squad.

Can Virginia slow down Duce Robinson this time around?

A big reason for optimism around Florida State is superstar receiver Duce Robinson, back for his senior season. Against Virginia in 2025, Robinson caught nine passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Overall, he had five games of at least 120 receiving yards last season.

“In terms of ceiling, no one but Malachi Toney surpasses Robinson in the ACC,” McBroom said.

The Cavaliers will need to do more to hinder Robinson this time around. He is capable of shouldering a massive load for an offense that is going to have to rely on new contributors. If Virginia can keep the action closer to the trenches, it could be a favorable matchup for the Cavaliers.

Is Ashton Daniels capable of scoring in bunches against Virginia?

Thomas Castellanos is gone, and in his place, Florida State brought in transfer Ashton Daniels to start at quarterback. It remains to be seen how Daniels will perform, but the general outlook is less positive.

“Daniels played better than he is given credit for down the stretch with [Auburn] a season ago, and he should provide a much more consistent presence at the position than Castellanos did,” McBroom said. “However, he doesn’t provide the same ceiling that Castellanos did a season ago either, and he has posted a 5-18 record as a starting QB during his time with Stanford and Auburn. Fans shouldn’t worry about Daniels being another DJ [Uiagalelei], but FSU’s lack of investment in a more proven portal quarterback combined with the continued inability of Mike Norvell to develop a QB not named Jordan Travis, remains concerning.”

Florida State will probably need a strong performance from Daniels in order to keep pace with Virginia’s experienced, potent offense that should be one of the better units in the ACC.

Can Florida State make the big plays?

The Seminoles could have been dealt a tinge of bad luck last year, as they finished third in scoring in the ACC, plus sixth in total defense, but finished 13th in the conference. The talent is certainly there for them to be more consistent, especially on defense.

Florida State retained rising stars on defense, and also supplemented itself with linebackers Chris Jones from Southern Miss and Rylan Kennedy from Texas A&M, plus cornerback Nehemiah Chandler from Auburn and other external additions. The Seminoles will hope that bunch can correct a 2025 group that, more often than not, failed to make more plays than their opponent late in games — as seen against the Cavaliers.

What kind of Florida State team will show up?

“Overall, Florida State remains a team that, if all goes well, should win eight or nine games and go bowling with an outside shot at Charlotte if the ACC has a weak year,” McBroom said. “However, as watching Mike Norvell teams has proven time and time again, things do not all go well for this iteration of Florida State football. Norvell has shown to be a solid coach when coaching from ahead, but his teams have shown zero ability to deal with adversity dating back to the thrashing by Georgia in the 2023 Orange Bowl.”

However the Seminoles and Cavaliers rank heading into their rematch in September, this 2026 iteration could be a major litmus test for both teams — and both programs.

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