What Do The Advanced Analytics Say About The Rematch Between Virginia and Duke

What Do The Advanced Analytics Say About The Rematch Between Virginia and Duke

Nov 29, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott yells from the sidelines against the Virginia Tech Hokies in the third quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Virginia comes in looking to secure its first outright ACC championship since 1989. They won a share of the title in 1995 with a 7-1 conference record. The Hoos are a slight favorite over Duke as they match up for the second time this season. The Cavaliers defeated Duke on November 15th, 34-17, on the road. The Hoos are 10-2 on the season, and Duke comes in at 7-5. The Cavaliers have won two consecutive games after falling to Wake Forest. Their defense shut down the Hokies and held them to just seven points and four pass completions the entire game. The Cavaliers will look to ride their defense once more in the championship game. 

Despite the dominant effort, the advanced analytics is looking at the matchup differently and sees a much closer contest on Saturday night. According to ESPN’s FPI, Virginia is given just a 56.3% chance to defeat Duke. The Blue Devils are given a 43.7% chance to win. According to DraftKings Odds, the Hoos are favored by four, and the over/under number is set at 57.5. Despite the analytics and oddsmakers, The Hoos have a good shot at dominating on Saturday night if they establish their well-balanced offensive attack and the defense continues to play at a high level. 

Virginia Program Moving In The Right Direction

Oct 1, 2022; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliot looks on during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Virginia is beginning to stand out and can put the finishing touches on an incredible season with an ACC title. A big topic of discussion this week has been whether Chandler Morris could return for another season with the Cavaliers. Certainly, it will be a storyline to follow in the offseason. Morris has been instrumental in the team’s success in 2025 and has helped turn around the program. Last time out, the Hoos defeated their bitter rival, Virginia Tech, and showed that there is a changing of the guard. 

“We're headed in the right direction. We want to compete for this state, right? We want to be a worthy rival, right? We want to show up and do our part for everybody involved. Not saying that we're going to win every one of them, right? But I don't think you can win anymore until you get that first one, and get that monkey off your back, and to be able to come out and to play well and to win, kind of the way the guys did. I think it makes a statement for 365 days, and that's it. You know, we got to do it all again. So, just because of what happened tonight, it's not going it doesn’t carry over to next year. But I think it gives us confirmation. It gives us motivation. It gives us encouragement, a little bit of validation that we're definitely headed in the right direction to make this a competitive rivalry and make Virginia a program of relevance locally and then also nationally,” said head coach Tony Elliot.

More Virginia Football News:

•Everything From Tony Elliott's Early Signing Period Press Conference

•Could UVA Quarterback Chandler Morris Return for Another Season?

•Virginia Early Signing Day Tracker: Every Player Coming to the Program in 2026

•Virginia Releases Its Depth Chart Ahead of ACC Championship Against Duke