What Do The Advanced Analytics Say About Virginia's Matchup vs Duke

Virginia is a big underdog against the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday in Durham.

According to ESPN FPI, Virginia has just a 39.3% chance of coming out with a victory on Saturday. Duke has a 60.7% chance of winning on Saturday. ESPN Bet Sportsbook also has Virginia as an underdog and they are +4.5 against the spread, with their over/under set at 58.5.

Virginia is looking for a major rebound after falling to Wake Forest last weekend in a 16-9 defeat. The offense had one of its worst scoring performances of the season, but is looking to bounce back. The Hoos suffered an earlier loss to NC State during Week 2 of the season, but rattled off seven consecutive victories before their loss last week. Duke provides a different challenge, and one of the most prolific offenses they have faced this season. Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup.

More on the matchup

Latest — Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) throws the ball against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Virginia has dominated the series as of late and has won eight of the last nine meetings vs Duke and leads the all-time series 41-34. It is a series that is played every year. Last year was the first time Virginia didn’t play Duke since 1962.

Coming into the game, Duke has the No. 2 scoring offense in the ACC, averaging 35.2 points per game this season. They are only behind Georgia Tech, which is averaging 36 points per game. It will be an interesting battle between a top-scoring offense and a top-40 scoring defense, only allowing 21.60 points per game.

Duke and Virginia are also among the best in the conference at protecting the ball. Virginia has just nine turnovers, which is tied for the fewest in the ACC. The Hoos got a third of them last week against Wake Forest, which shows it is not a habit of theirs. Duke has just 11 turnovers, which fourth-fewest in the ACC. It will be interesting to see which defense can force the other to give up the ball.

For Virginia we will learn a lot tomorrow night at 8:00 PM when the availability report comes out for the ACC when teams have to designate players as questionable, probable, or doubtful. The big one to watch is Chandler Morris. Head coach Tony Elliot updated his status earlier in the week.

“I mean, he came back out, I know he's in street clothes there, and said he was feeling all right. We'll know more when we get some more tests early in the week, tomorrow and Monday. But man, you've got to, anytime you get hit in the head or up above the neck, you've got to make sure that you take that with a lot of caution, and so being very cautious. But from what I saw out there, he seemed like he was doing okay,” said Elliot.

At 8-2 and 5-1 in conference play, defeating Duke would give Virginia a much-needed tiebreaker and one step closer to the conference title game. It will be the toughest test of the season, but will show their true championship mettle.

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