Virginia Basketball vs. SMU Game Preview Score Prediction

See our game blog for Virginia vs. SMU with score updates and live analysis here: Virginia vs. SMU Live Updates | NCAA Men's Basketball

Nearly 40 days after their first meeting as ACC foes in Dallas, the Virginia Cavaliers and SMU Mustangs will clash again in Charlottesville, with UVA hoping to put an end to a three-game losing streak and get some revenge as well.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. SMU, including game details and notes, an opponent scouting report, what to watch for, and a score prediction for Wednesday night's matchup.

Virginia vs. SMU Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (8-8, 1-4 ACC) vs. SMU Mustangs (12-4, 3-2 ACC)

When: Wednesday, January 15th at 9pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena (14,623) in Charlottesville, VA

How to watch: ACC Network

How to listen: SiriusXM 383, SXM App 973 | Virginia Sports Radio Network | SMU App/Varsity Network App

All-time series: Tied 1-1

Last meeting: SMU defeated Virginia 63-51 on December 7th, 2024 in Dallas.

Virginia vs. SMU Game Notes

The all-time series between Virginia and SMU is now tied at 1-1 after the Mustangs defeated the Cavaliers 63-51 last month in Dallas.
The only other meeting between these two programs came in the semifinals of the Corpus Christi Challenge on November 29th, 2013, when Virginia defeated SMU 76-73.
UVA is 0-3 against the newest members of the Atlantic Coast Conference, having suffered road losses to SMU, California, and Stanford.
Virginia is on a three-game losing streak for the first time since the 2020-2021 season.
The Cavaliers are 7-2 at John Paul Jones Arena this season and 1-6 away from home this season.

Scouting Report: SMU

2023-2024: 20-13, 11-7 AAC (5th)
2024-2025: 12-4, 3-2 ACC (6th)

In the first meeting between these two teams just over five weeks ago in Dallas, it looked as though Virginia would prevail. The Cavaliers succeeded in making the Mustangs play their style and pace. SMU remains one of the highest-scoring teams in the country, ranking 18th nationally at 84.7 points per game. But on that afternoon against UVA, SMU scored a season-low 63 points, putting the Cavaliers in position to win the game.

Isaac McKneely hit four threes and finished with 17 points. He scored seven points in a row to give UVA a 45-38 lead with a little over 10 minutes to go, once again putting the Hoos in a favorable spot to claim a victory in their ACC opener. Instead, Virginia did not make another field goal for the rest of the game and scored only six more points over those last 10 minutes. SMU closed the game on a 25-6 run and pulled away for a 63-51 victory in its first ever in-conference game as a member of the ACC.

SMU's 7'2" center Samet Yigitoglu had a season-high 16 points and junior guard Kario Oquendo also set a season-high, scoring 21 points off the bench, with 15 of those points coming in the second half. Two of SMU's starters - B.J. Edwards and Yohan Traore - were held scoreless in the game and Wake Forest transfer Boopie Miller was held to nine points and he shot 0/5 from three. But the Mustangs were buoyed by the production of Oquendo and Yigitoglu and simply didn't need to score very much because of UVA's untimely scoring drought in the last quarter of the game.

SMU outrebounded Virginia 36-25 and outscored UVA 30-10 in the paint and 32-16 in bench points. Those lopsided margins have continued to be trends for the Cavaliers in those categories over the course of ACC play. Virginia is 3-4 since that game against SMU, while the Mustangs are 4-2 with wins over LSU, Boston College, Longwood, and Georgia Tech and losses to Duke and North Carolina. To date, SMU is 12-4 overall and 3-2 in ACC play, good for 6th in the conference standings. The Mustangs are currently No. 46 in the NET rankings, making this a Quad 2 home game for Virginia.

What to Watch For in Virginia vs. SMU

How is the morale of the Cavaliers?
This entire Virginia roster expected to be playing for a legendary head coach in Tony Bennett. The media voted the Cavaliers to finish fifth in the ACC and expectations were for UVA to contend near the top of the conference and at the very least be in the discussion for an NCAA Tournament bid come March. Instead, Ron Sanchez is leading the team with an interim tag that looks more and more like a lame duck situation with every game. Virginia has lost three games in a row for the first time in four years and is a dismal 1-4 in ACC play in a very, very down year for the league. Reasonable questions can be asked about the morale and spirit of this team and if the Hoos face in-game adversity, which they likely will, it'll be interesting to see how they respond, if at all.

Is home cooking the recipe for a Virginia turnaround?
As we have just shown, this is turning into a disastrous season for Ron Sanchez and the Cavaliers. Maybe their only hope is to effectively defend home court, as they are 7-2 within the friendly confines of John Paul Jones Arena this season and 1-6 everywhere else. JPJ does not offer the home court advantage it once did, but there have been a few close games where the home crowd has gotten into the game and played a factor. But more than anything else, perhaps returning home to Charlottesville will provide a boost for a team in much need of one after a tough and long trip to the West Coast last week.

Can Virginia play a full 40 minutes?
This has become one of the dominant, but unfortunately negative trends of this year's Virginia basketball team. In the games against Tennessee, Florida, SMU, Memphis, Louisville, and Cal, the Cavaliers followed up good first halves with terrible second halves that allowed those games to get away from them. The first matchup with SMU was maybe the most frustrating, as it was actually a good first three quarters for the Cavaliers followed by a horrendous final 10 minutes. It might be beyond the capacity of this team, but Virginia has to play closer to a full game in order to win.

Virginia vs. SMU Prediction

I've picked the Hoos to win a lot this year and have been wrong quite a bit. With the way Virginia has been playing, there just isn't a lot of reason to believe the Cavaliers can get it done against a quality team like SMU, even at home.

Score prediction: SMU 73, Virginia 65

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