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Week three bowl projections — Virginia continues to attract attention

The Cavaliers continue to accrue national attention
Xander Tilock|
Aug 29, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers enter the field before the game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg Atkins-Imagn Images
Aug 29, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers enter the field before the game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg Atkins-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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Virginia Cavaliers

According to ESPN’s updated Football Power Index, Virginia is projected to go 11-1 this season. The Cavaliers are averaging over 47 points per game and only allowed one score in each of their first two games. 

Ahead of a trip to play West Virginia in Charlotte, N.C., Virginia is looking like it could very well repeat last year’s success — or perhaps advance even further. Week three bowl game projections vary, but multiple predictions have been made for the Cavaliers to play in a better postseason game than they did last season.

Where do national outlets have the Cavaliers in week three?

  • On3 (Andy Staples): College Football Playoff at No. 6 Notre Dame
  • ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Holiday Bowl vs. Utah
  • ESPN (Mark Schlabach) Holiday Bowl vs. USC
  • CBS Sports: Holiday Bowl vs. Utah 
  • College Football News: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Kansas State

There seem to be only a few designations for Virginia — finishing as ACC runner-up or third-best team, or finishing last among the ACC’s best teams. 

Those predicting a Holiday Bowl appearance have the Cavaliers finishing behind Miami, SMU and Louisville. At this rate, Virginia is favored in all but one of its remaining games. If the Cavaliers do in fact go 11-1, the Holiday Bowl would be impossible.

An 11-1 record, more likely than not, means a trip to the CFP — or, at least the Pop-Tarts Bowl, which is for the ACCs’ top non-CFP team. The precedent says an 11-1 Power Four team gets into the 12-team field, even with an average resume.

My projection: College Football Playoff at No. 6 LSU

If Virginia wins 11 games, it deserves a spot in the CFP bracket. It would very likely be the lowest available seed, though (the No. 12 seed will almost certainly be a non-Power Four team).

Based on how the other ranked teams look to start the season, a trip to Baton Rouge, La. is a possibility. The Tigers, currently ranked No. 7, completely destroyed Clemson and Louisiana Tech. Next, LSU travels to No. 8 Ole Miss in one of the top games in all of college football this week. One week later, the Tigers host No. 9 Texas A&M. 

Given that the SEC will clearly have several teams in the field, LSU might not secure a bye — Georgia and Texas could occupy higher seeds. The Tigers might also have to win against the Rebels and Aggies (plus Alabama and Tennessee) to be seeded as highly as No. 6.

Virginia can relate — the path to the Playoff is forged through winning football games.

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Xander Tilock
XANDER TILOCK

Xander Tilock serves as the lead editor for Virginia on SI. He previously spent four years as a Senior Writer/Sports Editor for The Cavalier Daily, where he authored the publication’s most articles since 2017 and was named Literary Writer of the Year in 2023. Xander has been referenced on ACC Network, Yahoo Sports, Sirius XM ACC Radio, UVA Today, The Virginian-Pilot, and dozens of other publications nationwide. Outside of journalistic endeavors, Xander graduated with distinction from the University of Virginia in 2026. He is also a proud owner of the Green Bay Packers — and for a final twist, you can find him acting, writing, directing, and producing films and plays. Follow Xander on X @xandertilock

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