Virginia Tech MBB's Advanced Numbers on KenPom: How Does VT Look Entering ACC Play?

Virginia Tech enters its Commonwealth Clash showdown with No. 21 Virginia sporting an 11-2 record.

Virginia Tech Athletics

We're officially at the point of the year where we've passed Christmas. To celebrate, here's some statistics from Ken Pomeroy's site to monitor heading into Virginia Tech's Commonwealth Clash showdown with No. 21 Virginia on Wednesday, Dec. 31 at 2 p.m. ET (TV: ACCN).

From our family to yours:

Merry Christmas, #Hokies 🎄🎁❤️ pic.twitter.com/aJGmU6yYSR

— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) December 25, 2025

For starters: the basic KenPom metrics. Virginia Tech currently ranks No. 69 through Saturday's games with an 11-2 record and a +12.01 net rating. Its offense ranks No. 76 with a tally of 115.4; compared to its 75th-ranked defensive tally of 103.4. The Hokies' adjusted tempo currently sits at 69.5, good for No. 160 in Division I ball. Meanwhile, their luck counter sits at +.104, 27th-highest in the nation. Its nonconference strength of schedule net rating sits at No. 191.

For the Cavaliers, they sit at No. 23 in the KenPom rankings with an 11-1 record and a net rating of +22.19. Their offensive rating is No. 11 in the country at 124.3, while their defense sits at No. 64 with a rating of 102.1. Virginia's tempo is one of the slowest in the nation, coming in at 67.6 — No. 256 in D-1. Virginia's luck rating is almost negligible, sitting at -.001, No. 194 in the nation. Virginia Tech will be the fifth KenPom top-70 team that the Cavaliers have played; Virginia has a 4-1 record against such opponents, with a seven-point loss to Butler (No. 51 on KenPom) on Nov. 23 its only blemish.

Virginia Tech has played two other top-70 schools: Saint Mary's (No. 33) and VCU (No. 42). The Hokies lost both games by a combined 29 points, slipping to No. 78 in KenPom following the tournament. Counting top-80 teams, Virginia Tech's record is at 2-2, now including a 107-101 overtime triumph over Providence (No. 74) on Nov. 8 and Colorado State (No. 75) on Nov. 26.

At the time of writing, Pomeroy's metrics predict an 80-76 triumph for Virginia and allot the Hokies a 37% chance of victory.

The Minute Details For The Hokies:

Let's take a look at the MinutesMatrix system KenPom utilizes. It illustrates several key points: center Antonio Dorn received starting minutes in the first three contests following the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. It also clearly illustrates how the Hokies have leaned on their bench. Pasha leapt from a combined three minutes against South Carolina, George Mason (DNP) and Western Carolina to a whopping fifty-five minutes in the following two games. While the second game was an overtime contest (82-81 victory), taking out five minutes to account for it still puts Pasha at 50 minutes across two contests.

KenPom

On Pomeroy's site, the possession percentage metrics denote a player by level of contribution, depending on the percentage of possessions they're used. Major contributors fall in the 24 to 28% usage rate, while significant contributors sit at 20-24% rate. Role players fall in the 16-20% rate, while limited roles and benchwarmers rest in the 12-16% range and under 12%, respectively.

Forward Amani Hansberry, who's averaging a team-high 16.3 points entering league play, and Greek wing Neoklis Avdalas, are listed as the team's major contributors, tallying 25.4% and 24.5% marks, respectively. Guards Ben Hammond (21.2%) and Jailen Bedford (20.5%) fall in the significant contributors denotation, while forward Tobi Lawal (19.6%; last seven games missed), Christian Gurdak (19.1%), Antonio Dorn (17.0%) and Izaiah Pasha (19.8%) are listed as role players. Interestingly, Pomeroy's metrics slot guards Tyler Johnson (13.7%) and Jaden Schutt (15.9%) in the "limited roles section", despite Johnson starting all 13 games that the Hokies have played this season.

Defensively, Virginia Tech’s opponents have tried to grind games down, pushing the Hokies to an average defensive possession length of 18.1 seconds, which ranks No. 319 in Division I. Virginia plays at a similarly deliberate defensive pace, with its 18.9-second mark ranking No. 362 nationally.

One thing to note: per Pomeroy's metrics, Virginia Tech ranks third in both offensive turnover rate (13.1%) and in steal rate (6.3%), showcasing its stellar ability to keep the ball from being pickpocketed. Where Virginia holds a decisive advantage is on its size; just 6.1% of its shots are blocked, ninth-best in the nation. On the other end of the floor, the Cavaliers have blocked 17.5% of their opponents' shots, sixth-most in the nation.