FPI Updates Virginia Tech's Win Total and ACC Championship Odds After Clemson Win

How does ESPN's FPI projects the Hokies' final four regular-season games?

Clemson wide receiver Bryant Wesco Jr. (12) catches a pass near Virginia Tech cornerback Jaquez White (2) and safety DQ Smith (11)/ Referees ruled he did not maintain possession of the ball going out of bounds. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Virginia Tech football secured its biggest victory of the James Franklin era Oct. 24, defeating Clemson 20-16 at Memorial Stadium to become bowl-eligible in its first year under the former Penn State head coach.

The Hokies (6-2, 3-2 ACC) entered the fourth quarter trailing 16-10 before outscoring the Tigers 10-0 in the final period. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer connected with tight end Luke Reynolds for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:44 remaining, securing Virginia Tech's first victory over Clemson since 2007.

Grunkemeyer completed 20 of 32 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns, both to Reynolds, while Virginia Tech's defense recorded 13 tackles for loss and four sacks.

With bowl eligibility secured and four regular-season games remaining, the Hokies now turn their attention toward finishing the season strong. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects Virginia Tech as the favorite in two of its final four matchups, with challenging road contests against SMU and Miami still ahead.

Here's a game-by-game look at Virginia Tech's updated FPI projections and how each remaining opponent performed this past week.

Game 9: at SMU (Nov. 6) — 28% win probability

SMU (6-1, 4-1 ACC) extended its winning streak to four games Saturday with a commanding 59-20 victory over California, overcoming a three-point halftime deficit before taking complete control in the second half.

The Mustangs erupted for 42 unanswered points after halftime, turning what initially appeared to be a potential upset into their most impressive offensive performance of the season.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns, helping SMU maintain its position among the ACC's top contenders. The Mustangs have now won five consecutive games since suffering their lone defeat of the season.

The Mustangs will also have home-field advantage when the two programs meet in Dallas on Friday, Nov. 6. ESPN's FPI gives Virginia Tech just a 28% chance of leaving Gerald J. Ford Stadium with a victory.

Game 10: vs. Stanford (Nov. 14) — 92.1% win probability

Stanford (4-4, 2-3 ACC) returned to the win column Friday night with a narrow 31-28 victory over NC State, earning its second conference victory of the season.

The Cardinal entered the contest looking to build momentum after an inconsistent opening stretch that included blowout losses to Wake Forest and Notre Dame. NC State parted ways with its longtime head coach Dave Doeren one day after the loss.

Despite the win, Stanford remains a substantial underdog in its upcoming trip to Blacksburg. The Cardinal have struggled against stronger competition this season, including a 57-3 loss to Wake Forest and a 58-7 defeat against Notre Dame.

Game 11: at Miami (Nov. 21) — 5.1% win probability

Miami (7-0, 5-0 ACC) continued its undefeated campaign Saturday with a dominant 52-23 victory over Pittsburgh, further solidifying its position atop the national rankings.

The No. 1 Hurricanes received another outstanding performance from quarterback Darian Mensah, who threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers. This year, Mensah has thrown for 22 touchdowns to just one interception.

Freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney was equally impressive, recording a program-record 16 receptions for 194 yards and three touchdowns.

Miami's offensive production has been a defining feature of its undefeated season, with Mensah and Toney establishing themselves as one of the nation's most dangerous quarterback-receiver combinations.

The Hurricanes have also demonstrated an ability to win close contests, surviving a 43-35 double-overtime thriller against Florida State the previous week. For Virginia Tech, the Nov. 21 trip to Miami Gardens represents its most difficult remaining matchup by a far margin.

Game 12: vs. Virginia (Nov. 28) — 57.1% win probability

Virginia (4-4, 2-3 ACC) suffered its second consecutive defeat Friday night, falling 19-16 to Duke at Scott Stadium. The Cavaliers entered the matchup hoping to rebound from a 23-13 road loss to SMU, but their offensive struggles continued against the Blue Devils. Virginia held a 17-minute-plus time of possession advantage, but it was outscored 12-3 in the second half.

Virginia has now dropped four of its last six contests after beginning the season 2-0, placing increased importance on its final four regular-season games. The Cavaliers will travel to Blacksburg for their annual Commonwealth Cup matchup on Nov. 28, with Virginia Tech looking to close the regular season on a positive note.

ESPN's FPI currently gives the Hokies a 57.1% chance of defeating their in-state rival, down slightly from last week's 57.6% projection. With Virginia Tech already bowl-eligible, the Commonwealth Cup could provide an opportunity to secure another meaningful victory while building momentum heading into postseason play.

Right now, Virginia Tech's ACC Championship odds at FPI sit at 0%.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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