SP+ Projects Final Score for Virginia Tech-Stanford
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BLACKSBURG — After a 51-28 loss to SMU in Dallas, Texas, on Nov. 6, Virginia Tech football returns home to Lane Stadium to host Stanford on Nov. 14.
On Friday, the Hokies (6-3, 3-3 ACC) conceded their most points in a single game since the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl against Maryland (54-10).
SMU scored on its first eight drives, and four of its six second-half drives concluded with the Mustangs reaching the end zone. It was the first time since Sept. 13, 2025, that Virginia Tech allowed 500-plus yards, and it was the first time since Oct. 10, 2020 against North Carolina (656) that the Hokies allowed 569 yards.
This week, the SP+ metrics project a 22.3-point margin of victory for Virginia Tech, giving the Hokies a 92% chance of claiming the win Saturday. The SP+ projected final score (rounded) is 39-17, while Virginia Tech — a current 14.5-point favorite — is the against-the-spread pick.
The Hokies clinched bowl eligibility Oct. 24 with a 20-16 victory over Clemson, their first over the Tigers since the 2007 season. Virginia Tech had previously opened the season with four straight wins — its first time beginning the season at 4-0 since 2017.
The Hokies lost back-to-back games against Pitt (35-33) and California (25-20) to open October; in the former, fifth-year kicker John Love missed a 36-yard game-deciding field goal, while in the latter, Virginia Tech conceded the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds remaining.
The Hokies responded with a 34-24 victory over Georgia Tech and the aforementioned four-point win over Clemson to clinch bowl eligibility before its 23-point loss in Dallas.
Stanford is 4-5 (2-4 ACC) this season and has won two of its last three games. The Cardinal opened the season with a 37-27 win over Hawaii before enduring consecutive blowouts to then-No. 7 Miami (45-6) and then to Duke (35-7). Stanford bounced back with a 34-27 victory over Georgia Tech on Sept. 26; the Yellow Jackets are currentlty in last place in the ACC standings.
Consecutive beatdowns to Wake Forest (57-3) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (58-7) followed where the Cardinal were outscored 115-10. Stanford responded with a 34-7 victory over Elon before logging a 31-28 win over NC State at home on Oct. 23.
Stanford had this opast week off; its last game was on Oct. 31 against Louisville — a 52-24 loss. After Virginia Tech, the Cardinal will play California and SMU to round out the season. The Hokies close their season with No. 5 Miami and Virginia.
Virginia Tech's contest against the Cardinal kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.
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Hughes serves as Virginia Tech On SI's lead editor, a position that he has held since July 2025. Hughes is a junior at Virginia Tech majoring in sports media and analytics. He also serves as the open-wheel correspondent for the motorsports outlet Steering Wheel Nation, where he has written on Formula 1, the NTT IndyCar Series, the NASCAR Cup Series and the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series. Hughes has previously authored bylines in 3304 Sports, Virginia Tech's multimedia student journalism outlet.
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