SP+ Projects Final Score for Virginia Tech vs. Maryland

What do Bill Connelly's SP+ metrics predict for Virginia Tech against the Terrapins Sept. 19?

Sep 12, 2026; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech wide receiver Ayden Greene (0) runs with the ball as Old Dominion players pursue. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BLACKSBURG — Fresh off back-to-back victories against VMI (73-3) and Old Dominion (44-21), Virginia Tech is in search of its first 3-0 start — and its first out-of-conference Power Four win — since the 2017 season when it travels to College Park, Md., to take on Maryland.

A good afternoon in Lane 🙌#LetsGoHokies | @PenFed pic.twitter.com/p10ellJLdt

— Virginia Tech Football (@HokiesFB) September 12, 2026

Virginia Tech's margin of error against the Terrapins is far less than it was against VMI or Old Dominion. While SP+ favored the Hokies 68-0 against VMI and 35-14 against ODU, this week's projections have Virginia Tech barely coming out on top, 26-25. The Hokies hold a 54% win probability on SP+ this week.

In Virginia Tech's 23-point win over Old Dominion, Hokies starting quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns. His 327 passing yards were the most in a single game for the program since Ryan Willis did so against Boston College in 2019; Grunkemeyer's 31 completions also were the second-most since in a single game for the program since at least 1987, according to the HokieSports statistical database.

Tight end Luke Reynolds also accumulated 108 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in Saturday's victory — both career-highs — while wide receiver Que'Sean Brown had a career-best punt return with a 79-yard return that came down right at the 1-yard line.

Reynolds has tallied 158 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns this season, while Grunkemeyer is 48-of-62 for 554 yards and three touchdowns. Virginia Tech has outscored its opponents 117-24 in its first two games — including a 107-9 mark in the first six quarters of the season. The Hokies outgained Old Dominion 416-310, though they finished with only 89 net rushing yards (2.1 yards/carry).

Virginia Tech enters the clash ranked No. 28 in SP+, taking a three-place drop after the Monarchs game. Maryland, for comparisn, ranks No. 39. The Terrapins currently slot in as the fifth-highest team by SP+ on Virginia Tech's schedule, behind Miami (No. 4), SMU (No. 19), Virginia (No. 29) and Pitt (No. 36).

Virginia Tech holds a 15-17 record all-time against Maryland, though it hasn't played against the Terrapins at College Park since 2009 (36-9 win for Virginia Tech). The last time the two teams matched up was in 2021 for the Pinstripe Bowl in The Bronx, N.Y., where Maryland overpowered Virginia Tech 54-10 in a game where the Hokies were decimated by player exits. Tech is 4-3 against the Terrapins on the road, and it's won its last two showdowns in College Park (2005, 2009).

Virginia Tech's clash against Maryland is set for Saturday, Sept. 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET. The game will be aired live on FS1.