March Madness: Four Bold Predictions for Women’s NCAA Tournament Round of 32

Here’s what to watch on Sunday and Monday.

Aaliyah Chavez dropped 15 points for Oklahoma against Idaho. | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The first round of the women’s NCAA tournament is nearly in the books. While the bracket has been chalky so far, it hasn’t lacked entirely for excitement—for example, one-time power Virginia won its first tournament game in eight years over Georgia in overtime.

It’s too early to zoom out for a full-scale reassessment, but it’s definitely not too early to make some bold predictions for the second round. Here are some surprises to look for during the slate of 16 games on Sunday and Monday.

With restored confidence, No. 6 Notre Dame upsets No. 3 Ohio State

In our initial set of bold predictions, we tabbed the Fighting Irish as a candidate to slip up against top mid-major Fairfield. Not only did Notre Dame not slip up, the Fighting Irish held the Stags to one of their lowest point totals of the season in a 79–60 victory. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, started slow before riding a 23–4 second quarter to a 75–54 win over Howard. Considering Ohio State struggled at times with a Bison team that missed all nine of its three-point attempts, the Buckeyes will need a fast start Monday. Look for Notre Dame guard Hannah Hidalgo to steer an upset.

No. 4 Oklahoma beats No. 5 Michigan State by at least 20

This may seem like another knee-jerk reaction after the Spartans struggled against Colorado State Friday, but let’s look under the hood a bit. The Sooners are in the top 40 in the country in both offensive and defensive rating. Michigan State is eighth in offensive rating, but 162nd in defensive rating, with a few baffling lapses on its schedule (a 78–64 loss to a bad Wisconsin team, for instance). Oklahoma also has one of the best wins in college basketball this season—an epic overtime victory over South Carolina in January. This game has all the hallmarks of two teams headed in opposite directions.

No. 10 Virginia gives No. 2 Iowa another scare—this one a shootout

It seems like a distinct possibility that the Cavaliers will enter the second round as the only remaining double-digit seed. In terms of catching a team off balance, Virginia couldn’t find a better opponent than the Hawkeyes. For a large portion of Iowa’s game against Fairleigh Dickinson on Saturday, it looked like the Hawkeyes would become the first No. 2 seed ever to lose to a No. 15 seed in the women’s tournament. On the one hand, Iowa shouldn’t expect to shoot 1-for-13 from three again; on the other, the Hawkeyes shouldn’t count on a 29–2(!) free-throw differential. A close shootout seems likely.

No. 5 Maryland upsets No. 4 North Carolina

The Tar Heels are only slight favorites over the Terrapins, so this isn’t that much of a stretch. Still: UNC has been mostly airtight since losing to Stanford and Notre Dame in back-to-back games in January, while the Terrapins lost by 18 to Michigan to close the regular season and by five to Oregon in their Big Ten tournament opener. Maryland seemed to get its act together against Murray State, a solid mid-major—the Terrapins won by 32 with guard Oluchi Okananwa making just two of her eight field goal attempts. If the Duke transfer performs closer to her season averages (17.7 ppg, 5.4 rbg) she’ll be the best player on the floor with ease.

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