What The Stats Say About Wake Forest vs. Western Carolina

What does the analytics say about the Demon Deacons week two matchup?

Sep 9, 2023; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Wake Forest helmet during the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

After beginning their season with a week one win over Kennesaw State, the Demon Deacons hope to take that and run with it, leading to back-to-back wins against Western Carolina.

Despite the win, the final score didn't instill confidence in neutral fans around the country, primarily due to the offensive struggles. With a hopeful return from running back Demond Claiborne, the Demon Deacons hope to see an increase in offensive efficiency.

What else does the stats say about the week two matchup for Jake Dickert's squad.

Find A Rhythm

Nov 30, 2024; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils tight end Jake Taylor (15) looks to outrun Wake Forest Demon Deacons defensive back Evan Slocum (7) during the second half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The Demon Deacons found a way to win last season, but it wasn't due to a big explosive play, nor from consistent offense. In fact, they rank 110th out of just over 130 FBS teams in terms of first-half offense, and even worse in expected points added.

Their EPA per play was a -.11, ranking in the 27th percentile, but their success rate was 41 percent, which was the median in week one of college football. Surprisingly enough, the EPA for both teams, was the highest at the first 30 plays of the game, and then it never went back positive, something needing to be avoided going into week two.

Where the Demon Deacons really struggled, and where they will need to be better, is in their expected points added per rush, after they finished -.24, a mark good for the 14th percentile. They were only better than 13 percent of other teams in FBS. A lot of that can be attributed to star running back Demond Claiborne exiting the game after their third offensive play of the game.

The questions remains if he will return, with head coahc Jake Dickert saying it's a contact related injury, meaning it might be a "see how it feels after the first hit" and go from there against Western Carolina.

Getting Claiborne back though, would especially help in their explosive play rate, at three percent, finishing in the THIRD percentile for all of FBS. Sure, the Demon Deacons aren't known for their explosive offense, and with newcomer Robby Ashford at the helm, you aren't expecting 350 passing yards a game, but you expected more.

Figuring out a way to get the offense rolling for longer than the first ten minutes of the game, and keeping the momentum, is the difference between a close game against an FCS team, and the first dominant win of the Dickert regime.