What The Stats Say About Wake Forest Upsetting SMU
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After a much-needed bye week, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons will look to continue their winning streak as they host the SMU Mustangs. The Mustangs are one of only three ACC teams still undefeated in conference play, while the Deacs are looking for their second conference win.
For the Deacs, this will be their toughest test to date, even more complex than their game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, as the Mustangers enter the contest with one of college football's most prolific offenses, capable of putting up crooked numbers.
What does the analytics say about the Demon Deacons' odds to get their second conference win of the season as they look to defend Winston-Salem from the newest conference member?
Good on Good
The strength of the Demon Deacons' defense has been their pass defense this season, currently ranking 27th in the country in passing yards allowed per game with 181.3. Their secondary, paired with experience and discipline, remains their strong point at the halfway mark of the season, but they will face their toughest test in the Mustangs.
Rhett Lashlee has one of the best passing attacks in the country, led by Kevin Jennings at the helm, an experienced quarterback who combines precise passing with elite ball placement to keep defenses on their toes. Pair that with his athletic ability to extend plays, and the Deacs will need to be sure they are tight in coverage.
The Mustangs rank in the top half in nearly every passing statistic: 21st in completion percentage (67.80), 28th in yards per pass (8.3), 15th in passing yards per game (282.8), and 31st in percentage of plays called that are pass plays (53.75). The one area that they do not excel at is ball security. They throw an interception 2.93 percent of the time, which ranks 96th in the country.
Unfortunately for the Demon Deacons, that is where they struggle. They force an interception only 1.12 percent of the time, which ranks 119th, better than less than 20 other FBS teams. Another weak spot in their pass defense is sacking opposing quarterbacks, which they only record 1.30 percent of the time, placing them 101st in the country.
The Deacs will ideally need to improve in both categories to defeat the Mustangs, but even a slight improvement in one of those categories would increase their odds of walking away with the upset victory. While their offense has shown signs of improvement, their consistency leaves much to be desired, so the defense will need to be at its best if they want to defend their home field.
The Demon Deacons will host the Mustangs on Oct. 25 at 11 a.m. CT
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JD Andress is an accomplished sports writer and journalist with extensive experience covering a wide range of collegiate sports. JD has provided in-depth coverage of the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns. He looks forward to being part of the coverage of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. His experience spans various sports, including football, men’s and women’s basketball, baseball, rifle, equestrian, and others, reflecting his broad interest and commitment to sports journalism.