Analytics Suggest West Virginia Should Have No Problem with Kansas State

The computer projections expect the Mountaineers to collect their 14th win of the season tonight.

Jan 21, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jasper Floyd (1) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The next game on the schedule is the most important one. You've heard Ross Hodge say that umpteen times now, and he's right. While Kansas State may not go down as a signature win on the resume, it could be a stain if you allow them to come into Morgantown and beat you on your home floor. Tonight is one of those "take care of business" nights.

What the BPI says about the matchup

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index, the Mountaineers have a 76.8% chance to remain unbeaten at home, while Kansas State has a 23.2% chance to pick up just their second win in league play and move a game above .500 on the season.

Getting pounded by the No. 1 team in the country isn't a sign of what's to come for West Virginia. They took it on the chin against Houston a couple of weeks ago and bounced back with two straight wins. There's something about the home court edge in Morgantown, so it's not all that surprising to see the analytics lean heavily toward WVU in this contest.

West Virginia's recent games

It wasn't the prettiest of starts by any stretch of the imagination, but West Virginia played an efficient second half and really dominated Arizona State late, picking up another double-digit win. Going into Tucson was a massive challenge for this group, especially given how their previous two outings went against top-10 teams on their floor (Iowa State and Houston). Arizona took control early and never allowed WVU to claw back into the game to make it interesting. To be successful in this league, you have to have the memory of a goldfish, and so far, this team has done a good job moving on from losses.

Kansas State's recent games

It's been a brutal start to league play for the Wildcats, winning just one of their first seven matchups, and are just 1-3 at home. Aside from the 25-point road loss to Arizona, K-State has played well enough to win in its two other road games against Arizona State, which they lost by three, and at Oklahoma State, where they fell by one.

They picked up their first league win of the season last Tuesday, edging out Utah behind a 34-point outburst from leading scorer P.J. Haggerty. He had 23 on Saturday against Kansas, but it wasn't enough as they gave up 49 points in the second half, ultimately losing 86-62.

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