Matchup Predictor Reveals West Virginia's Chances to Take Down No. 1 Arizona

It may be a small percentage, but it means the Mountaineers still have a chance, right?

Dec 3, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Chance Moore (13) celebrates after a play during the second half against the Coppin State Eagles at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

When you're facing the top-ranked team in the country, the odds of you winning are going to be extremely low. When you face said team on their floor? Even lower.

West Virginia will try to defy the odds this afternoon in Tucson and pick up a signature win over. No. 1 Arizona.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Mountaineers have just a 9.8% chance to pull off the stunner and hand Arizona its first loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have a 90.1% chance to take care of business and remain unbeaten.

I know it sounds like I'm nit-picking here, but even 9.8% chance seems to generous for West Virginia. The Mountaineers have had success against top-ranked teams over the years, but typically those matchups are played in Morgantown. This Arizona team can beat you a million different ways. Right now, WVU is still searching for multiple ways to win games.

West Virginia's recent games

Quietly, West Virginia is one of the hotter teams in the Big 12 of late, having won four of its past five, including double-digit wins over Kansas, Colorado, and Arizona State. Their only loss in that span came to Houston, who may be the only team in the league that has a chance to truly challenge Arizona for the Big 12 crown.

In their last two outings, Honor Huff has been drawing a ton of attention, leading to very few opportunities to get a shot up. Treysen Eaglestaff has come through in the clutch with 22 vs. Colorado and 23 against Arizona State. They'll need both to light it up this afternoon.

Arizona's recent games

Arizona has blown out a bunch of teams this season. When their offense is firing on all cylinders, they can make it really challenging for opposing teams to keep pace, especially when they're knocking on the door of the century mark. Here recently, though, they've had a couple of close-ish games, defeating Arizona State and UCF by seven points each. Even Cincinnati hung around with them for a while until the floodgates opened in the second half. If WVU can stay with five or six at the break, that's considered a win.

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