Upset Brewing? Matchup Predictor Gives West Virginia Fair Shot to Beat Texas Tech

Ross Hodge is aiming to take down his mentor, Grant McCasland, this afternoon in Morgantown.

Jan 27, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Treysen Eaglestaff (52) shoots during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Imagesa | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Every game from this point forward is crucial for the West Virginia Mountaineers. They've stubbed their toe a couple of times and blown double-digit leads, which have put them in a difficult position. They can take a big step toward landing on the NCAA Tournament bubble this afternoon if they can take down Texas Tech.

Chances of that happening?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has a 44.3% chance to spring the upset while Texas Tech has a 55.7% chance to improve to 7-3 in Big 12 play.

Although I understand the analytics are showing WVU some love because of this one being played at home, I am a little surprised that their chances to win are in the 40s. Maybe the long layoff for Tech cools them down from three-point range where they can be so dangerous.

West Virginia's recent games

The last time the Mountaineers were at home, they saw their 16-game winning streak snapped inside Hope Coilseum to a team they were favored to beat in Baylor. This isn’t a do-or-die game for WVU, but it is one of the few remaining opportunities to make a statement and boost their NCAA Tournament resume. 

On Thursday, WVU overcame yet another sluggish start, outscoring Cincinnati 39-24 to erase a 10-point halftime deficit. Honor Huff heated up in the second half, so perhaps he’s on his way to getting back on track.

Texas Tech's recent games

The Red Raiders have dropped two straight, losing a high-scoring affair to UCF on the road and a slugfest at home to Kansas. If WVU has any shot of winning this game, they need it to play out similarly to Tech’s game against the Jayhawks. In that one, Tech still made 12 threes, but shot just 30% from downtown, 32% from the floor, and managed to shoot just five free throws.

The Mountaineers and Red Raiders are scheduled to throw the ball up in the air at approximately 1 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on FOX and can be heard live on the Mountaineer Sports Network.

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