West Virginia’s Tournament Fate Is Surprisingly Alive

Look, I'm not here to predict that West Virginia will win enough games to get to the NCAA Tournament, nor am I going to tell you that you should feel good about the odds of that happening. What I am here to say is there's still a chance, and no, I'm not talking about the Big 12 Conference tournament.

An at-large bid is still very much in play for the Mountaineers, although a lot has to go right. How is that so? Well, simply due to playing in the Big 12 Conference.

The remanning schedule w/NET Ranking

at No. 77 Cincinnati (Quad 2)
vs. No. 19 Texas Tech (Quad 1)
at No. 37 UCF (Quad 1)
vs. No. 115 Utah (Quad 3)
at No. 54 TCU (Quad 1)
at No. 67 Oklahoma State (Quad 1)
vs. No. 15 BYU (Quad 1)
at No. 93 Kansas State (Quad 2)
vs. No. 37 UCF (Quad 2)

Q1 games: Five
Q2 games: Three
Q3 games: One

What HAS to happen for West Virginia

Jan 31, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Ross Hodge talks with West Virginia Mountaineers guard Honor Huff (3) during the first half against the Baylor Bears at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Let's start with the obvious. They HAVE to beat Utah AND win at least two of the three Q2 games. The reason I say two of the Q2 games is that if they were to lose one of Cincinnati/Kansas State, beating UCF at home would make up for it. Going 2-0 and losing to UCF isn't the end of the world because the Knights are likely a tournament team, and who knows? That could be a Q1 game at the end of the year, depending on how they play.

Going 3-1 (at worst) puts WVU at 17-9 (8-5). Now, let's go to the Q1 games. In my opinion, beating Texas Tech is probably more likely than taking down BYU, but if I'm being honest, I'm not sure I see either happening.

Should they drop those two, then they'll need to beat UCF, TCU, and Oklahoma State on the road just to be on the bubble at 20-11 (11-7). If you ask me, winning 11 games and being four games over .500 in the best conference in basketball should be enough to get you in. The analytics probably disagree.

Let's get crazy for a second

Say West Virginia beats Texas Tech, goes 3-1 in Q2/Q3 games (doesn't lose to Utah), loses to BYU, beats UCF on the road, and splits the TCU/Oklahoma State road trip. That also puts the Mountaineers at 20-11 (11-7), but with a huge quality win over Texas Tech and another win over another likely NCAAT team in UCF. Is that enough? I would have to think so, but then again, it is the selection committee we're talking about.

West Virginia’s Tournament Fate Is Surprisingly Alive — Here’s How

The remanning schedule w/NET Ranking

What HAS to happen for West Virginia

Let's get crazy for a second

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