What is the Magic Number for West Virginia to Make the NCAA Tournament?

With last night's narrow win over Kansas State, West Virginia has kept its NCAA Tournament resume in decent shape, although there's a tremendous amount of work to be done.

So, what's the magic number for the Mountaineers to punch their ticket? Let's break down the current resume and what's left on the table.

Current record: 14-7 (5-3)

Resume: 1-5 (Quad 1); 1-2 (Quad 2); 4-0 (Quad 3); 8-0 (Quad 4)

NET ranking: 65

KenPom ranking: 57

Remaining games: vs. Baylor, at Cincinnati, vs. Texas Tech, at UCF, vs. Utah, at TCU, at Oklahoma State, vs. BYU, at Kansas State, vs. UCF

Quad 1 games: vs. Texas Tech, at UCF, at TCU, at Oklahoma State, vs. BYU

Quad 2 games: vs. Baylor, at Cincinnati, at Kansas State, vs. UCF

Quad 3 games: vs. Utah

As things stand today, the Mountaineers have five Quad I opportunities. That, of course, could change depending on how those (and others left on the schedule) play. For example, if Oklahoma State spirals downhill, that road game could be bumped down to a Quad II game. Or if UCF plays extremely well down the stretch, the regular season finale against them could be a Quad I game. The point is, West Virginia still has everything it wants to accomplish in front of it.

Take care of home court

The Mountaineers have been great at home all season, and that's going to have to continue as we enter the back half of league play. They have two shots at a signature win, playing host to Texas Tech and BYU. If they can somehow steal one of those, you increase your chances of dancing significantly.

Steal some on the road

Aside from the Arizona State matchup, playing away from Hope Coliseum has been torture for West Virginia this season. Fortunately, they won't be paying any visits top-10 teams from here on out. There's a very winnable road game coming up next week at Cincinnati, and later in the year, their final road game will be a rematch against Kansas State.

The magic number? 21

In most years, I'd say 20 probably gets the job done, especially if you're comfortably over .500 in Big 12 play. With the two bad losses West Virginia has though, they're going to have to make up some ground. The analytics don't love this team, and neither do their bracketology experts. If 21 sounds crazy, just think about it for a minute. WVU went 19-13 last year and had several quality wins, yet still got snubbed. I do believe they can make it at 20, but by hitting 21, in my opinion, it removes all doubt. Plus, they still have the Big 12 tournament to work with as well, which will create extra opportunities to pick up Quad I or II wins.

Take care of home court

Steal some on the road

The magic number? 21

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