Another Nail-Biting Finish? SP+ Model's Final Score Projection for WVU vs. Kansas

Late this afternoon, the West Virginia Mountaineers will be looking to secure win No. 6 of the season when they take on the Kansas Jayhawks. Kickoff has been moved up from 5:30 to 3:30 p.m. ET because of other games in the Big 12 Conference being impacted by the FAA's nationwide ground stop. So, it may not be a full night game, but a good bit of it will still be under the lights.

West Virginia has a better than 50% chance to beat the Jayhawks, a ccording to the ESPN FPI matchup predictor, but what about the SP+ final score projection?

Bill Connelly's SP+ model's prediction says...

The model predicts WVU to win 31-30. Zoinks! Talk about taking a few more years off the lives of Mountaineer fans...sheesh! While the Jayhawks have struggled to come out on top of games this season, they've had several one-score losses, and as WVU head coach Rich Rodriguez stated earlier in the week, their record could very easily be flipped. The Mountaineers can't start looking ahead to the final two games of the season, where they'll face ranked teams — they have to take care of business tonight and move to 6-4 on the season.

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This ending in a one-point game would not shock me. I don't see this being a blowout by any means. It will likely be what we've seen for much of Big 12 play with the Mountaineers: high-scoring affairs where the defense that makes the key stop(s) in the fourth quarter comes away victorious.

The only thing I disagree with here is the score. I'd be stunned if both teams don't get out of the low 30s. By the way this WVU offense and defense have been playing, they could surpass that by the midway point of the third quarter.

If this played out to be true...

Bowling! This would give WVU a two-win improvement from last year's team with three games to go, if you include the bowl game. While the season. has not gone the way anyone had hoped, there is still a chance to finish this thing off strong and build some momentum heading into 2027. Nowadays, it's hard to take the end of one season into the next, but if you are able to retain several of your key players, you certainly can.

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