Computer Projections Reveal West Virginia's Chances to Upset TCU

Is it better luck next week for the Mountaineers?

Oct 18, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Rodney Gallagher III (24) rushes the ball in the first half against the Central Florida Knights at Acrisure Bounce House. Mandatory Credit: Russell Lansford-Imagn Images | Russell Lansford-Imagn Images

Finally, the West Virginia Mountaineers (2-5, 0-4) will return home this weekend and will host the TCU Horned Frogs (5-2, 2-2) for the annual Coal Rush game.

As you would expect, given the recent play of this team, the odds are stacked against them.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. TCU

Oct 18, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) talks with associate head coach Kendal Briles during the first half of a game against the Baylor Bears at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), the Mountaineers have a measly 18.3% chance to snap their four-game skid, while TCU has an 81.7% chance to get over .500 in league play.

Defensively, this is a nightmare of a matchup for West Virginia. They've been allowing explosive plays in bunches since Big 12 play began, particularly through the air. Josh Hoover is one of the best quarterbacks the league has to offer, and he has a pair of dynamic receivers in Eric McAlister and Jordan Dwyer that can hit the big play anytime the ball is thrown their way. For WVU to even have a chance in this one, they're going to need the secondary to play like it did in the first three weeks of the season when it was a unit that was viewed as a strength.

Offensively, this could be a chance to figure some things out in the passing game, even if Scotty Fox gets the start at quarterback. TCU is allowing over 251 yards per game, which ranks 110th nationally, and yes, lower than WVU.

Change in analytics since initially released

WVU Athletics Communications

Back during fall camp when the initial projections were made, West Virginia had a 43.7% chance to win this matchup. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why the massive drop. WVU is on its fourth different starting quarterback, without its top two running backs, without its No. 2 wide receiver, and has lost its four Big 12 games by an average of 27 points. Quite frankly, I'm a little shocked West Virginia is getting as much "love" as they are.

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