Phil Steele Gives WVU Better Than 50% Chance to Pull Off a Late-Season Upset

I've been saying it for weeks: with how good this West Virginia offense is, they are bound to pull off a big upset at some point. The defense has to get better, of course, but with how efficient and explosive the Mountaineers' run game is, they have what it takes to shock the country at least once, maybe twice.

On Friday morning's episode of the In the Gun Podcast, I asked college football expert Phil Steele if he believes the Mountaineers have a realistic shot at beating one of the three ranked teams remaining on their schedule — Texas Tech, Houston, or Utah — in addition to beating Kansas to finish with a record of 7-5 or better.

“Yeah, there’s definitely a chance. And what have we seen in college football this year? Teams coming off big wins get beat, and you’re just like, what? What just happened? So, is it a possibility? Oh, definitely a clear possibility. If you’ve got three big games down the stretch with the potency of that West Virginia offense with Hawkins and Cook and everything they’ve been putting on, I would give it over a 50% chance that they get at least one of those games.”

Winning tonight on the road at Texas Tech isn't necessarily far-fetched, but it's pretty unlikely. Phil also gave us his thoughts on this game against the Red Raiders, which you can read here.

The one that I'm circling is the home game against Houston on November 21st. They lost to the less talented Mountaineer team a year ago at their place and now have to come to Morgantown, where they'll be tasked with stopping an electrifying duo with a defense that isn't as stingy as it was a year ago.

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Winning one of these games against a ranked team, plus a win over Kansas, would be considered a successful season in my book. That would give you an opportunity to reach eight wins if you come out victorious in the bowl game, officially doubling the 2025 team's win total.

Then comes the most important part of this rebuild: re-signing Mike Hawkins Jr. to a new deal. Everyone in that program knows that he is a priority and is willing to do whatever they possibly can to make sure he stays in a Mountaineer uniform.

Watch the full episode here

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