SP+ Model’s Score Prediction Signals a Nail-Biter for WVU vs. Cincinnati

The vibes in the Mountain State have quickly turned.

Just a few weeks ago, West Virginia was 3-0 and one win away from breaking into the AP Top 25 for the first time in eight years, and now they are hoping to avoid their fourth straight loss and dipping below .500 for the season.

Bill Connelly's SP+ model on ESPN is projecting that a fourth straight L will happen, giving a final score prediction of Cincinnati 32, West Virginia 29.

Is this a fair projection?

West Virginia University Football | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

It absolutely is. As I stated in my score prediction earlier this week, I think this is a true toss-up game. Both teams have had loads of success running the football and have had a laundry list of issues on the defensive side, to say the least.

You know that famous Spider-Man meme? This would be the perfect use for it. These two teams are very similar in their strengths, weaknesses, the brand of football they want to play, and how they want to attack.

I could see this one going either way, so Cincinnati getting out of Morgantown with a three-point win would not be surprising to me, or anyone, for that matter.

What a 4th straight loss would mean for the Mountaineers

Oct 10, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (3) walks off the field after a turnover on downs during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Wildcats at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The odds of the Mountaineers making a bowl game at this point would be slim to none, especially when you consider the remaining schedule. They would have to go 3-2 at worst, and that's with games against TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, Kansas, and Utah. Since the dog days of summer, I've been talking about this part of the schedule and how brutal it was.

Ripping off a bunch of wins in the more manageable part of the schedule was going to be crucial. The last thing you want to have is a situation where you have to win more than two games in this gauntlet they are about to enter just to get bowl-eligible.

Dropping to 3-4 would really deflate the fanbase and pretty much all of the momentum the program appeared to have after defeating Virginia in Charlotte.

It may only be year two, but Rich Rodriguez does not want this thing to snowball out of control. He believes this group is talented enough to win games and prevent that from happening, so not taking care of business at home would be supremely frustrating for him, his staff, and everyone in that building.

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