West Virginia's Win Probability vs. Houston Has Completely Flipped Since the Preseason

The computers are chalking this one up as a loss for the Mountaineers.

West Virginia University linebacker Chase Wilson | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

For the second time this season, the West Virginia Mountaineers will get an opportunity to pick up a win over a ranked opponent, albeit on the road. Houston enters this matchup ranked 22nd in the AP Poll and is fresh off a win over then-ranked Arizona State.

Can WVU put an end to its losing streak this Saturday?

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Houston

Oct 25, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Houston Cougars defensive back Jordan Allen (6) celebrates a play against the Arizona State Sun Devils in the second half at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), the Mountaineers have a whopping 18.9% chance to hand Houston its second loss of the season and collect their first victory in Big 12 play. Houston is sitting at an 81.1% chance of winning.

The heavy lean toward Houston makes sense for a variety of reasons. West Virginia hasn't won a game in a month and a half, the defense, with the exception of last week, has been putrid, and the offense hasn't had much life, also with the exception of last week.

The Cougars are one of the biggest surprises in college football this season, winning seven of their first eight games after a dreadful 4-8 season a year ago. They've played clean, complementary football and have one of the top defenses in the Big 12 once again.

All that said, if WVU can cut, copy, paste, and build off of what they did against TCU, they'll have more than a chance to put an end to that five-game losing skid.

Change in analytics since initially released

West Virginia University offensive lineman Nick Krahe | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

Before the season began, this was one of the games I circled as a win for West Virginia, and I'm sure many others did as well. Obviously, I didn't expect all of the injuries and shortcomings on both sides of the ball to take place, nor did I see Houston being this good. Even the FPI was fooled by this game. Back in August, West Virginia was given a 50.7% chance to take down the Cougars. If WVU were healthy, you'd have to think that the decrease, although inevitable, wouldn't have been as drastic.

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