What the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor Says About WVU's Chances vs. Arizona

That's it? The FPI isn't giving WVU quite the respect you think it would get for a home game.

West Virginia University running back Cam Cook | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

It's not a must-win game for West Virginia simply because every game is a must-win. But what they are is desperate for a win after dropping a couple of games to begin Big 12 Conference play.

This week's game against Arizona is one they really need to get to recapture some of the early-season momentum they had and get things turned around. If they win this one and take care of business against Cincinnati next week, the vibes will be much different with a 5-2 (2-2) mark over the halfway point of the season.

WVU's defense comes into this one as the worst unit in Power Four football, ranked 133rd nationally in total defense. Arizona, meanwhile, has the top passer (Noah Fifita) in the Big 12, looking for an opportunity to put up some big-time numbers.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. Arizona

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) matchup predictor, the Mountaineers have just a 39.5% chance of picking up their first league win of the season, while Arizona has a 60.5% chance of moving to 5-1 on the year and dropping WVU to .500 six games into the campaign.

Too high? Too low? Just Right?

West Virginia University quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

Look, I understand how poorly West Virginia has played defensively in each of the last two weeks, but it's not like they have had the same issues on the offensive side of the ball. If the defense came up with one more stop, WVU would likely win that game against Iowa State.

Because of how high-powered and efficient the Mountaineers' offense has been, it gives them a chance to win every game they play in, regardless of how the other side of the ball is doing. Obviously, you don't want to have to get into a shootout every week, but no one has been able to truly slow this offense down yet and they are only going to get better as the season moves along.

The other part of this is Arizona having to travel across the country for a game that is kicking off at 9 a.m. for their bodies. That's not an easy thing to adjust to. If they come out flat or a little sloppy, that may be all it takes for WVU to grasp control of this one. If anything, this should be 50/50.

The Mountaineers and Wildcats will kick off the action at 12 p.m. ET from Milan Puskar Stadium. The game will be televised on TNT.