WVU Was Once Favored to Beat Utah but Now ESPN Analytics Paint a Grim Picture

The Big 12 home opener for the West Virginia Mountaineers is just days away as they'll set to take on the Utah Utes on what will also be Hall of Fame weekend. Can WVU make its inductees proud with a win?

What the ESPN FPI says

Sep 20, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Devon Dampier (4) looks to pass against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the first quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), the Utes have a 72.2% chance of leaving Morgantown victorious, while the Mountaineers have just a 27.8% chance of collecting their first Big 12 win of the season.

After a miserable season offensively a year ago, Utah found a solution by hiring offensive coordinator Jason Beck from New Mexico and bringing his quarterback, Devon Dampier, along with him. Through the first four games of the season, the Utes are averaging 242 yards per game on the ground and 210.8 yards through the air.

Meanwhile, West Virginia has been unable to figure much of anything out offensively, thanks to underwhelming offensive line play. It's a group that's been pushed around and bullied through the first month of the season, and things won't get any easier this Saturday against this physical Utah front.

Change in analytics since initially released

Sep 13, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers wide receiver Raphael Williams Jr. (5) catches a pass for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

A rash of injuries combined with poor offensive line play and inconsistent play at quarterback, are all reasons why WVU's win probability has dropped significantly from a month ago. Before the season began, the Mountaineers were given a 50.9% chance to win this game. At the time, I thought it was incorrect for West Virginia to be the slight favorite, and looking back on it, it's even crazier to see.

All that being said, it wouldn't surprise anyone if the Mountaineers showed up on Saturday and played a good brand of ball, keeping the game close. Having the home crowd behind you is always helpful, and Utah is coming off a deflating loss to Texas Tech. You just never know in this league.

The Mountaineers and Utes will kick things off at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. You'll be able to watch the game live on FOX.

What the ESPN FPI says

Change in analytics since initially released

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