Badger Basketball Exit Meetings: Is Nolan Winter ready to be the guy?

Loyalty is hard to come by in the modern landscape of college basketball. Luckily for Wisconsin fans, it’s what they’ve got with Nolan Winter. His skillset made him a prime candidate for the sport’s wealthiest to lure him into the portal, but the big man stayed true to Greg Gard and will finish his career as a Badger.

The decision to stay was the biggest of the offseason for Wisconsin, but evolving into a true No. 1 will be the biggest factor in the team’s success in 2026-27. Here is a final analysis of Winter’s junior season before we start discussing next season’s possibilities.

2025-26 Stats (30.7 minutes per game)

13.1 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 BPG | 56.9% FG, 32.6% 3-pt, 74.2% FT

2025-26 High

Ironically, arguably the best two games of Winter’s season individually came in losses, the first being early in the season against Villanova in Milwaukee and the second in the controversial loss at Indiana. Despite the losses, I thought Winter showcased exactly why he can be Wisconsin’s go-to guy in 2026-27.

Everyone remembers how emotional Winter was in post-game media availability following the loss to Villanova, and his effort in the contest backed up how badly he wanted it. In 43 minutes of action, the junior forward registered 23 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and two blocks. He went 4-for-6 from deep, and as he did most of the season, converted at a high clip around the rim, going 5-for-6 from two.

In the Indiana loss, it was another 40-minute outing, with 26 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks. Once again, he was uber-efficient, shooting 9-for-13 from the field and 3-for-5 from three.

Both contests displayed Winter’s ability to play off his guards, but also be the primary scorer in extended stretches, which was a welcoming sight. As the stats suggest, he was also extremely active defensively and finished possessions on the glass.

There was a lot to like from Winter in nearly every facet of the game in 2025-26, and he did so on a consistent basis. Any big player capable of playing 40 minutes while not giving up a step rebounding or defensively is a coach’s dream, and to do it with the offensive tools he possesses, the sky is the limit.

2026-27 will be his first chance at being the true alpha for the Badgers on both ends, with more than enough tape to indicate he’s ready for that challenge.

Winter drives against Oregon — Feb 25, 2026; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nolan Winter (31) drives to the basket past Oregon Ducks center Nate Bittle (32) during the second half at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images | Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

2025-26 Low

There was no one game in particular where it felt like Winter was truly “bad”, as even in the eight games where he shot less than 50% from the field, he averaged 9.9 rebounds. There is one thing, however, I really wanted to see more of from Winter, and that was getting to the free-throw line.

This wasn’t an issue that plagued the big man for the entire season, but in four of the team’s final five losses which Winter played in–excluding the loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament which he missed with an ankle injury–he did not attempt a single free throw. Of those five losses, the one he did get to the line in was the previously mentioned game at Indiana.

Not to say that Winter getting to the line a few times would’ve automatically flipped the result of any contest, but when a team has a big with his offensive prowess, that moves as fluidly on the perimeter as he does, it hinders an offense to not utilize that luxury.

It feels like everyone wants Winter to transform into a dominant post-scorer, and not to say a back-to-the-basket game wouldn’t be nice, but I think Winter serves Wisconsin best when he is stretching defenses with his jumper, and using his unique blend of size and fluidity to get to the basket, putting pressure on the defense.

More post-up opportunities could be on the way in 2026-27, which is an exciting idea, but what’s most important to me is that Winter doesn’t have games where he shies away from physicality as he has in the past. I feel pretty confident that Wisconsin will not win very many games next season when he attempts no free throws, and he did a good job of being aggressive most of this season, but the Badgers will need even fewer games of lessened aggression as they turn to him as “the guy”.

Final grade: A

With 12 double-doubles on the season and providing a supplemental 13.1 points per game to a backcourt which averaged nearly 40 points combined, it’s hard to ask for much more out of a big. It felt like Winter took a major step forward as a rebounder, seemingly always in the right position, which was reflected by his per game mark.

Since his arrival in Madison, fans have always wanted to see more physicality from the Minnesota native, and with good reason, but Winter still had a great junior season. Now, he’s made Badger fans even happier in the offseason.

Winter dunks against Rutgers — Wisconsin forward Nolan Winter (31) dunks the ball during the second half of their game Saturday, January 17, 2026 at the Kohl Center in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat Rutgers 96-87. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What’s next?

As I just alluded to, Winter is a popular guy in the state of Wisconsin right now, choosing to forgo bigger money in the open market and return for his senior season. However, the 2026-27 season will be his biggest challenge yet.

Losing Nick Boyd and John Blackwell as offensive focal points left the staff with a lot of production to replace and with fairly limited financial resources, another step forward from Winter will be absolutely necessary to get back to the NCAA Tournament.

Should Winter continue to be a top-tier rebounder and stay aggressive offensively, with an increased usage rate, I think he will absolutely be an all-league player next season.

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