3 Storylines I'm Following Closely in Wisconsin's Matchup Versus No. 13 Penn State

Do the Badgers have what it takes to pull an upset?

Sep 12, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell during the game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It’s no secret that Wisconsin would need to play near perfectly and get some help for it to emerge victorious over Penn State on Saturday. The time for simply competing in these games is past. 

The Nittany Lions, like the Badgers, are a bit dinged up and will be without their most explosive playmaker. While ranked in the top-15, Penn State hasn’t been a team that looks unbeatable this season, having played three games against far inferior opponents.

It’s a prove-it game for Wisconsin, and while a win seems unlikely, it’s not out of the question. Here’s three storylines I’ll be following as kickoff draws near and through the entirety of the game.

Momentum or false hope?

I feel pretty confident saying that last week’s win over Eastern Michigan was the best non-conference showing, if not game, of the Luke Fickell era. Was it the most important win? Absolutely not, but it felt like the first time that Wisconsin has come out and handled an opponent exactly as it should.

Now the question becomes, does the blowout victory indicate a corner being turned for the program, or will we once again see the Badgers compete for a half before losing somewhat handily? That’s the question we’ll get an answer to on Saturday night, and it’s by far the storyline I’m most intrigued by.

To this point, Penn State is a tough read. It dominated a team from both the MAC and Sun Belt, but looked vulnerable, at least for stretches, against Temple. No matter what, Beaver Stadium is as tough of a venue as any in the country, and leaving it with a victory isn’t something that happens very often for opponents.

Coming off a dominant offensive showing, there’s plenty of reason to be hopeful. Colton Joseph showed that there’s big-play potential in this offense. He’s had an up-and-down season thus far, but his ability to run and make big-time throws as he did last week prove he has significant upside.

Sep 19, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph (1) during the game against the Eastern Michigan Eagles at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Badgers struggled to establish the run against Eastern Michigan, which they’ll need to do to have any chance against the Nittany Lions. Defensively, a slow start, as Wisconsin had last week, may be too much to overcome against a top-15 opponent, making it crucial that Mike Tressel’s group comes out firing.

A lot would have to go right for the Badgers to march into Happy Valley and win, but for the first time in a long time, it feels like they have some legitimate momentum, and the time for moral victories is over.

Can the Badgers run the ball?

As I mentioned, Wisconsin dropped 54 points last week, but if you look beyond the total score, the running game simply wasn’t very good. Granted, Abu Sama, who had been cleared, was held out of the game against the Eagles, but anytime your quarterback is your leading rusher with less than 50 yards on the ground, it’s a subpar day from the run game.

As a team, Wisconsin rushed for just 117 yards, averaging 3.9 yards-per-carry. Against Eastern Michigan, it was fine because Joseph was decimating the eagles through the air. But against Penn State, the pass attack hasn’t proven it can single-handedly beat a top-15 team.

Not to say that Sama needs to return and go for 200 yards on the ground, but he — or a player like Darrion Dupree — need to have a good day on the ground to not only keep the offense moving, but the clock running. The shorter of a game you play when you’re at a talent deficit, the better.

Sep 12, 2026; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Abu Sama III (3) during the game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The other component of the run game I’m interested to see is Joseph as a runner. He ran nine times last week, some of which were designed, but when Wisconsin played Notre Dame, he didn’t do much on the ground. His legs were a major part of his appeal as a transfer, but we’re yet to see many highlight runs from him. 

I expect Jeff Grimes to dial up a few designed runs for him once again, but it’s also safe to assume he’ll be under more pressure than he has in the last two weeks. With that said, I expect him to need to extend plays with his legs, not only to find receivers, but to take off and pick up some yardage. To be determined what it looks like, but I think we see more of Joseph’s running ability this week than we have all season.

Luke Fickell's game management

Since Fickell took over, there’s been plenty of opportunities for fans to point to his in-game decision making in a negative light, and rightfully so. There have certainly been some head-scratching decisions in the last few seasons. In the quest for an upset, the head coach must make good decisions throughout the game.

Whether that’s the decision to be aggressive to end the first half, or choosing to pass up a field goal to flip the field with a punt, Wisconsin won’t win this game on talent alone, so Fickell must be confident in his decisions in key spots. 

Within reason, I’m not opposed to taking a game to halftime or punting from long field goal territory, but if the Badgers are going to do those things, they can’t be down a score or two. If they’re tied or in the lead and don’t want to open the door for a disastrous turn of events, I’m all for a conservative approach, but too many times Fickell has chosen that approach when his team needs to be aggressive.

Fickell is coaching for his job at this point which means — as I said earlier — there are no moral victories. If this was year one of a rebuild and he coached conservatively to show his team can hang with the top teams, whatever. But this is his fourth season. He was brought here to win these games, not be competitive.

Wisconsin doesn’t win on Saturday, or even compete, if Fickell doesn’t manage a good game. The Badgers seem to have a kicker, they have a punter, they’ve been good on special teams, and the offense seems to have the ability to play uptempo if necessary. It’s time for Fickell to put it all together and call a complete game.