Despite Increasingly Real Chances, Wisconsin Must Beat UCLA Before We Use 'P' Word

Say what you will about this new era of college football we find ourselves navigating; the 12-team College Football Playoff has allowed significantly more fanbases to dream bigger for significantly longer.

In the four-team CFP era, one single loss could eliminate a program. Now, teams have made the playoff with as many as three losses (2024 Clemson, 2025 Alabama).

This season of college football has been full of surprises and upstart programs that've seemingly turned their fortunes around out of nowhere. One quick glance at the Week 6 AP Top 25 poll confirms that, with teams like Kentucky at No. 15, Northwestern at No. 25, and of course, Wisconsin's next opponent UCLA perched at No. 12.

All of the sudden, programs that have sniffed football relevance a handful of times in their entire existence now have a shot to punch a ticket to the big dance if they keep winning.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, has been abysmal in the 12-team playoff era. But like so many programs flipping the script this fall, the Badgers have seemingly made big strides as they're fresh off their bye week sporting a 4-1 record with a 2-0 mark in conference play.

According to an On3 post highlighting playoff odds from Polymarket, the Badgers have a 20% chance to make the College Football Playoff as we sit here today.

NEW: Best chances to make the College Football Playoff after Week 6📈

Odds, via Polymarket: pic.twitter.com/beyxzesZnH
— On3 (@On3) October 13, 2026

This checks out. Given the Badgers' schedule, and the carnage that's already unfolded around them in the Big Ten, Wisconsin has an outside — yet still very real — chance to be one 12 teams with a shot at the national title at the end of the regular season.

But don't you dare use the P-word just yet.

Wisconsin must handle its business before we talk CFP

With seven games to go in the season, it's all fine and dandy to talk about the Badgers' playoff chances. But the reality is, we still haven't played most of the season yet, and perhaps more importantly, we still haven't played the most crucial stretch of the season, a stretch Wisconsin is about to enter starting with Week 7 in Pasadena.

A win over the Bruins would put the Badgers in excellent position, as they'd still have the wiggle room to drop one game with two more big tests (vs. USC, at Iowa) remaining.

Conversely, a loss significantly tanks Wisconsin's chances at making the big dance, seeing as it essentially has to win out with the two aforementioned huge games remaining on the schedule, not to mention four other Big Ten teams lying in wait in November.

The UCLA game is a crucial turning point for head coach Luke Fickell and the Badgers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

That's why for me, this UCLA game is the turning point. If the Badgers win, the road to the playoffs becomes a legitimately feasible path. Lose, and it would probably take perfection down the stretch, something likely unachievable for this iteration of Wisconsin.

It's remarkable how much hope can be injected into the most broken fanbases with a good start to the season and a 12-team playoff. Again, say what you will about this era, but that aspect of it is unquestionably good for the sport. More relevant teams with more hopeful and engaged fanbases is always a good thing.

Wisconsin has played well this season, and its earned the right to bask in some of the newfound, widespread playoff hope. But let's not seriously begin the Badgers to the playoff discourse unless they topple No. 12 UCLA in the City of Angels.

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