College Football HQ

College football picks Week 4: Best upset predictions for top 4 bets ATS

If you are looking for a few college football underdogs to bet in Week 4, you have come to the right place. Here's a look at our top college football upset picks and best bets for Week 4.
Jonathan Adams|
Aug 31, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) drops back to pass against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Aug 31, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) drops back to pass against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

In this story:

South Carolina GamecocksTexas Tech Red Raiders

The college football picture should look a lot clearer after Week 4, but there are a few teams we have on upset alert this weekend. There is no shortage of marquee matchups in college football Week 4.

No. 11 Oklahoma is a 6.5-point favorite as former quarterback Jackson Arnold leads No. 22 Auburn into Norman. No. 19 Indiana has moved to a sizable 6.5-point favorite versus Big Ten foe No. 9 Illinois.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Nebraska is a sneaky 2.5-point home dog versus No. 21 Michigan. These games did not make the cut for the top upset picks.

Instead, let's take a look at the Big 12 and SEC, where several favorites could be in danger. Feel free to simply take these underdogs to cover the spread, or the more ambitious fans may want to hammer the moneyline for a higher potential return.

One strategy is to take a few of the top underdogs to win outright with the hopes that at least a couple do just that.

Here's a look at the best upset picks for college football Week 4, with all odds listed courtesy of FanDuel.

1. Arizona State +2.5 (+114 ML) at Baylor

Arizona State feels like last year's news after losing to Mississippi State two weeks ago. Baylor is mostly benefiting in the college football odds from a 48-45 overtime win over SMU in Week 2.

The Sun Devils still have a nice stable of running backs and get a boost against the Bears with playmaker Kyson Brown returning after being sidelined in Week 3. As long as Sam Leavitt is quarterback, Arizona State should not be dismissed as a Big 12 contender.

Look for the Sun Devils to pull off the upset in Texas.

2. South Carolina +9.5 (+285 ML) at Missouri

Just like that, South Carolina has gone from being mentioned as a College Football Playoff sleeper to a nearly a double-digit underdog versus No. 23 Missouri. There is plenty to like about Missouri's offense, with Penn State transfer quarterback Beau Pribula running the show.

Yet, it is fair to wonder what Missouri has done to deserve being such a massive favorite versus South Carolina. The Tigers' biggest win so far is against Kansas.

The big question heading into this SEC showdown is the status of South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who is now trending towards playing. With Sellers in the lineup, this game feels more like a coin flip than Missouri as a massive favorite.

South Carolina has too much talent just to fade into the distance this season after laying an egg versus Vanderbilt.

3. Texas Tech +3.5 (ML +126) at Utah

There is an old saying that big bank takes little bank, and that's exactly the case in this Big 12 clash. On3's Pete Nakos reported Texas Tech spent $28 million in NIL this offseason, second only to Texas.

Maybe money can't buy happiness, but it sure can get you an imposing defensive line. New Mexico transfer quarterback Devon Dampier has shined for Utah to start the season.

Dampier and the Utes have not faced a defense quite like the Red Raiders, which feels a bit like a portal all-star team. Texas Tech is a 3.5-point underdog, but look for the Red Raiders to cruise versus Utah, officially announcing their status as a Big 12 title contender.

4. SMU +7.5 (+210 ML) at TCU

There are a surprising number of rivalry clashes in Week 4. Fresh off a College Football Playoff campaign, SMU is being faded following a Week 2 overtime loss to Baylor.

Doubt the Ponies at your own peril in this DFW rivalry matchup. In general, fans would be wise to take the points with big spreads in rivalry games. Public perception still thinks of TCU as the team that defeated Bill Belichick's North Carolina 48-14 in Week 1.

The only problem is that those Tar Heels may not be that good, especially compared to SMU. Look for the Mustangs to have the Horned Frogs on upset alert as a 7.5-point underdog.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Read more from College Football HQ

Published
Jonathan Adams
JONATHAN ADAMS

Jonathan Adams is a veteran sports writer who has written for notable outlets and interviewed some of the top athletes for more than 10 years. Since 2015, his sports coverage has been read by tens of millions and has been prominently featured on Heavy, NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Pro Football Talk, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and more. Jonathan is a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and a voter for the Maxwell Award and Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year. He has interviewed many of the biggest stars in sports — Bryce Harper, Jayden Daniels, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson and Micah Parsons to name a few — and has traveled the country to cover the College Football Playoff, NFL draft, Masters, March Madness, Senior Bowl, McDonald’s All-American Game and beyond. Jonathan Adams studied at the University of Central Florida and The Seattle School of Theology & Psychology. He holds master degrees in sport business management, business administration and theology & culture.

Share on XFollow JonDAdams
Home/Betting