Two Major SEC Programs Projected to Struggle in 2026 Season

The Southeastern Conference enters 2026 aiming to reclaim a piece of its former glory after three straight Big Ten national championships. While the SEC sent five teams to last year's playoff, none reached the championship game.

FanDuel's recently released college football win totals show high expectations for Georgia and Texas, but some programs face a steeper climb. CBS Sports writer John Talty identifies Tennessee and South Carolina as likely candidates to fall short of their over/under.

These projections suggest a shift in the SEC's middle tier. Both programs must overcome significant roster transitions and difficult schedules to meet preseason expectations.

Tennessee Volunteers face uncertainty at quarterback

Head coach Josh Heupel faces a pivotal season in Knoxville defined by a transition under center. The Volunteers must replace Joey Aguilar, who was denied a final year of eligibility.

The team will choose between redshirt freshman George MacIntyre and true freshman Faizon Brandon. Guard Wendell Moe Jr. ranks at No. 9 on my college football's best returning guards list.

Tennessee football head coach Josh Heupel — Tennessee coach Josh Heupel during the Vols' spring football practice in Knoxville. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Talty notes this inexperience at the most critical position makes his under projection for their 7.5-win total understandable.

The 2026 schedule includes projected losses to Texas, Alabama, and LSU. "It's one of the reasons why it's understandable to be a bit less optimistic about Tennessee's prospects," Talty stated regarding the quarterback room.

The Tennessee Volunteers have their spring game scheduled for Saturday, April 11.

South Carolina Gamecocks navigate a demanding schedule

South Carolina also faces hurdles despite returning quarterback LaNorris Sellers and edge-rusher Dylan Stewart. Offensive tackle Jacarrius Peak is slotted at No. 9 in my best returning offensive tackles list for 2026. The Gamecocks are looking to rebound after failing to meet expectations during the 2025 season.

The program's win total sits at 6.5, which Talty views as a difficult mark given their road schedule. The Gamecocks must travel to Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, and Clemson.

"The schedule again doesn't leave much margin for error," Talty noted. These struggles could allow rising programs like Ole Miss or Texas A&M to solidify their standing at the top of the conference.

Head coach Shane Beamer and the Gamecocks will not hold a spring game this year due to ongoing construction at Williams-Brice Stadium and will instead host a Garnet & Black Spring Fest, which includes a concert headlined by Darius Rucker and Lauren Alaina.