Alabama vs. Arkansas football game preview, prediction
Despite some early season concerns that included a statement loss, No. 11 ranked Alabama has stabilized things after a 3-0 start in SEC play and hopes to take another step towards the West title against Arkansas in college football's Week 7 action on Saturday.
The loss to Texas and a close, sloppy win over USF had Crimson Tide fans worried that the end of the Saban dynasty was nigh, but three straight wins in conference games put Bama back in the driver's seat for the SEC West title as we move into October.
Standing in the way this week is a Razorback team that has failed to maintain the momentum of two years ago, with poor offensive line play and a rushing attack that struggled in Raheim Sanders' absence much of the season. But in close games, too: 3 of its 4 losses were by one score.
Alabama vs. Arkansas preview, prediction
Alabama vs. Arkansas game predictions
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How to watch
When: Sat., Oct. 14
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
Alabama vs. Arkansas game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Alabama -19.5
Total: 46.5 points
Moneyline: Bama -2000 | Hogs +725
FPI pick: Alabama 90.6% to win
What to watch for
1. Battle at the line. Arkansas' struggles protecting its offense hasn't been a secret. Offensive line play has deteriorated over the last two seasons, leaving quarterback KJ Jefferson under constant duress, allowing 23 sacks this year for 154 lost yards, and the run game has churned out just 3.0 yards per carry, a number that craters to only 1.1 ypc the last 2 games, which also included a dozen sacks permitted. Alabama is playing better scrimmage defense lately, and should be able to upset the Hogs at the line.
2. Hogs secondary. Alabama has relied heavily on throwing the ball this season, running for just 78 yards the last 2 weeks, but Jalen Milroe may have trouble finding consistent throwing lanes on the Razorbacks. A year ago, this was the nation's worst pass defense, but the unit has improved thanks to some transfer help, and is coming off allowing just 153 air yards to Ole Miss, a season-best performance. The back seven excels in one-on-one coverage while the front line attacks with a blitz-heavy look.
3. Pressure. Alabama has been generating meaningful pressure from the defensive line this season, even when bringing just four rushers, ranking 2nd in the SEC with 22 sacks. That's an important edge for the Tide against a Razorback line that is beatable, especially given what Bama's second-level tacklers can do as a result.
The pressure has forced hurried throws and allowed the linebackers and defensive backs to make plays on the ball at a surprising clip: Alabama is 3rd in the SEC with seven interceptions, as many in 6 games as it had all of last season. This defense can translate pressure into turnovers with considerable success.
Alabama vs. Arkansas prediction
Alabama vs. Arkansas picks
USA Today Images
The Razorbacks are simply having too many problems at the line of scrimmage to build much of any momentum on offense, allowing too much pressure on the quarterback and compromising the ability of the ground game to get going.
Alabama's lack of a rushing attack is worrying, and its absence may come into play as it nears the postseason, but right now Milroe is able to exploit his mobility, escape pressure against a subpar line, and give his receivers time to create space downfield.
College Football HQ picks...
- Alabama wins 36-16
- Covers the spread
- And hits the over
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