Alabama vs. Kentucky Game Prediction, Preview
A pair of SEC cross-divisional rivals meet up this weekend with one hoping to avoid falling under .500 during conference play on the year, and another looking to inch towards winning the SEC West title, as Kentucky welcomes CFP No. 8 ranked Alabama to the Commonwealth in college football's Week 11 action on Saturday.
- Tide is 6-0 in SEC play this season and 8-1 overall
- Loss to Texas sticks out, but Bama is close to earning a spot in Atlanta
- Alabama clinches the SEC West with a win/or Ole Miss loss this week; Rebels are at Georgia
- Questions remain around O-line quality, but defense is 19th in scoring
- Kentucky is 0-3 when allowing 30 points this season
- Mark Stoops is 0-3 against Alabama
Alabama vs. Kentucky preview, prediction
Alabama vs. Kentucky predictions
Alabama Athletics
How to watch
When: Sat., Nov. 11
Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
Alabama vs. Kentucky game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: Alabama -10.5
Total: 47.5 points
Moneyline: Tide -450 | UK +300
FPI pick: Alabama 85.7% to win
Keys to the game
1. Battle at the line. Kentucky wants to test Alabama's expert front seven alignment right away by running the ball behind Ray Davis. The tailback is 1st in the SEC with 84 points scored and is 2nd in the conference with 903 rushing yards. But the Tide is a highly-disciplined unit near the line, with the bodies to clog up the interior rushing lanes and the speed to shut down the escape routes to the outside and limit gains.
2. Establish the run. While the Tide has been able to compensate for suspect line protection and Jalen Milroe's mobility and burgeoning deep passing game, it has still struggled to run the ball with dominance. Kentucky is 4th in the SEC allowing 101 yards on the ground and is 3rd surrendering just 3.4 yards per attempt. Alabama needs to know it can churn out moderate gains on the ground to help Milroe and lend credibility to the play-action.
3. The second half. Alabama has played its best football after intermission this season, especially in its most important games. In four victories against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Tennessee, and LSU, the Tide outscored the opposition 82 to 13 in the second half of those games. Alabama is 18th nationally with 17.1 second half points, while Kentucky is 68th averaging just 12.4 points after the half.
Alabama vs. Kentucky prediction
Against the class of the SEC East, the Wildcats have struggled defending the pass, allowing almost 41 points on average in its three losses, all to teams that throw the ball well. Alabama's air game is playing at a solid level thanks to Milroe's building confidence and the competence of his skill targets in the deep field.
And in the meantime, Kentucky's attempt to build momentum by running the ball will grow progressively more difficult as the Tide's first-level tacklers give Davis less room to work with.
College Football HQ picks...
- Alabama wins 34-20 (-450)
- Covers the spread (-111)
- Under 47.5 (-105)
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