ESPN computer predicts college football national champion for 2023
Whatever controversy still surrounds the selection of the final four College Football Playoff teams, and whatever righteous anger Florida State fans will always have about it, the national semifinal is set for New Year's Day as we embark on the last four-team format before it expands to 12 teams starting in the 2024 postseason.
The one thing we know: we'll have a new national champion this season. That's after back-to-back champ Georgia was bounced out of the final four after losing the SEC Championship Game. What can we make of the national championship race right now? For that, let's turn to ESPN's College Football Power Index prediction model.
- Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
- Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Predicting college football's national champion
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Washington
1. Michigan (36.2%). The three-time defending Big Ten champions have appeared in the last two semifinals, but are yet to advance to the national title game. Now the Wolverines sit 1st nationally allowing 9.5 points per game, and 4th in the country surrendering just 4.27 yards per play.
2. Texas (28.8%). The Big 12 champions parlayed a big win at Alabama into their first playoff berth, recovering from a loss to Oklahoma, and riding a very strong run defense, one that allows just 2.87 yards per carry to opponents, surrendered 7 touchdowns on the ground, and is 3rd nationally in production.
3. Alabama (26.7%). The surprise SEC champions, recovering from that loss to Texas, running the table the rest of the way, and taking out Georgia in Atlanta, and then controversially jumping undefeated Florida State. Whatever happened in the committee room, the Crimson Tide are a formidable force right now, playing strong defense and boasting a big-play attack led by dual-threat quarterback Jalen Milroe.
4. Washington (8.3%). Michael Penix was a Heisman finalist after ranking 1st in college football in total passing production, leading one of the nation's most productive offenses, beating Oregon twice, and winning the Pac-12 championship. Washington is 5th nationally with 7.23 yards per play.
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams