College football picks, predictions against the spread for Championship Week
The moment of decision is finally here as the college football season turns to its first postseason stage, the Conference Championship Week slate of games that lead into College Football Playoff Selection Sunday.
At least one, and perhaps two, of the final four slots are already sure things: Georgia looks like a lock even if it were to lose in the SEC Championship Game, and Michigan has the credentials to argue for another bid even if things got weird against Purdue in the Big Ten title bout.
Not that anyone is predicting either of those teams will lose. The other two? That's where things have already gotten interesting.
USC flopped in the Pac-12 Championship Game after Caleb Williams' injury and the team's continued defensive miscues, dropping the Trojans from playoff contention. TCU is favored in the Big 12 title against Kansas State, but the line has been dropping since the open, and most analysts still think the Frogs will make the final four even with a loss.
Where do things stand this week? Here's our look at this week's college football picks against the spread for the league title games.
College football picks, predictions against the spread
ATS college football picks for Championship Week
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Game lines are courtesy of SI Sportsbook and may change after publication
Toledo (-3) vs. Ohio. A battle of strength vs. strength in the MAC title bout featuring Ohio's superb offense and Toledo's No. 1 ranked defense that allowed just 15 touchdown passes all season. But the Rockets are a question mark at quarterback, and Ohio is fielding CJ Harris after Kurtis Rourke's injury. Toledo is 0-5 against the spread in its last five games and the Bobcats are 8-0 ATS in their last eight, but this line is too narrow. ATS pick: Toledo -3
Related: College football games you should be watching today
TCU (-1.5) vs. Kansas State. If the Horned Frogs take down the Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game, they're in the College Football Playoff. Lose, and they might be in, too. But K-State is 4-1 against the spread in its last five, is 2nd in the league with 210 rushing yards per game, and backup Will Howard is playing well at quarterback. TCU fell behind 28-10 early in its first outing against the Wildcats before coming back, and is 5-1 against the spread in its last 6 and after a straight-up win. If there's such a thing as a team of destiny, the Frogs might be it. ATS pick: TCU -1.5
Troy (-7.5) vs. Coastal Carolina. Not having Grayson McCall at quarterback showed as the Chants dropped a 47-7 loss to James Madison in the finale. Troy has won 9 straight coming into the Sun Belt title, and is 4-0 against the spread in its last 4 league games. Coastal is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games against a winning team. ATS pick: Troy -7.5
How to watch: College Football Conference Championship Schedule
Georgia (-17.5) vs. LSU. That's a huge spread for a league title game, much less the SEC Championship, and while Georgia has been playing with big lines all season, it went 6-6 against the spread while LSU is 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. Georgia wins, but LSU makes it worth watching. ATS pick: LSU +17.5
This game matters: SEC Championship Game schedule, series history
Tulane (-4) vs. UCF. The winner of the AAC title game likely gets the Group of Five's New Year's bowl bid. UCF is 1-7 against the spread in its last 8 after scoring 40-plus in its previous game and its rushing capacity takes a hit as quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is dealing with a shoulder injury. Tulane is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 league games and 7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. ATS pick: Tulane -4
Place your bets: College football conference championship game lines, odds
Boise State (-3) vs. Fresno State. Jake Haener has been great since coming back from his injury for Fresno State, throwing just two picks. These are two evenly matched teams, and the two highest-scoring units in the Mountain West, but the Broncos have an edge running the ball, and they're 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 conference games. ATS pick: Boise State -3
Michigan (-16.5) vs. Purdue. The Wolverines are 2-4 against the spread in Big Ten games when favored by more than 14 and this line has only moved up since the open. Purdue is 2-0 ATS against ranked opponents this season. Michigan should leave Indy as the Big Ten champion, but the Boilermakers have some real skill throwing the ball. ATS pick: Purdue +16.5
Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina. Motivation might be an issue after both teams lost two games late in the season to take the luster off the ACC Championship, and Carolina is 3-8 against the spread in its last 11 neutral games, but 3-0 ATS as an underdog overall while Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 league games. ATS pick: North Carolina +7.5
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