College football picks against the spread for Week 11 games

Locking in our Week 11 predictions against the spread for college football's top games

On the other side of two official College Football Playoff rankings, there's still plenty to play for as we move into November and inch closer towards Championship Saturday. That includes critical action in the Big Ten, Pac-12, and the SEC as Week 11 games kick off. Now it's time to lock in our final predictions against the spread for Saturday's action.

How are we doing? College Football HQ is 36-52-1 (41%) against the spread so far this season. We went 4-4-1 last week, including our projection that Washington would upset USC and that Oklahoma State would beat OU in Bedlam.

Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Alabama at Kentucky

The line: Alabama -10.5

ATS pick: Alabama -10.5. A tough matchup for the Wildcats, who want to run the ball behind lead back Ray Davis, but that's a hard task against a Tide defense that's top 30 in run defense. Kentucky is also susceptible to efficient long passing teams, and Jalen Milroe is finding his big play ability.

More: Alabama vs. Kentucky prediction

Texas at TCU

The line: Texas -9.5

ATS pick: Texas -9.5. TCU has some weapons on the outside to throw to against a Longhorn secondary that has been vulnerable against the pass at times this season, but the return of Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers from his shoulder injury is enough to cover this line.

Miami at Florida State

The line: Florida State -14

ATS pick: Florida State -14. Miami is actually one of the more efficient total teams in college football on both offense and defense, but it still makes, or rather doesn't make, the plays needed to turn that into wins. The Seminoles could be surprised by the Hurricanes' relative strength on both lines, but Keon Coleman's reported return should be enough to carry FSU over.

Florida at LSU

The line: LSU -14

ATS pick: Florida +14. LSU's defense is just bad enough to let an offense as very average as Florida's to stay in the game. Graham Mertz has been serviceable at quarterback for the Gators, and he should find some seams against the Tiger back seven, but Jayden Daniels' apparent return is a good sign.

USC at Oregon

The line: Oregon -15.5

ATS pick: USC +15.5. There's no evidence to suggest the Trojan defense will stop anything Oregon wants to do, but the presence of Caleb Williams and USC's superb skill threats are enough to think this should stay within two touchdowns.

Utah at Washington

The line: Washington -9.5

ATS pick: Utah +9.5. The Huskies struggle defending against the run, and that happens to be how the Utes move the ball the best right now. Moreover, Utah has the pieces in the secondary to marginally slow Michael Penix and Washington's electric receivers. Slow, but not stop.

More: Utah vs. Washington prediction

Tennessee at Missouri

The line: Tennessee -1.5

ATS pick: Missouri +1.5. We project Missouri will upset the Volunteers. Not easily, not given how well UT has played defense at the line and run the ball, ranking third nationally in that category. But Missouri looks like the more physical team and has more outlets to throw the ball on top of home field advantage.

More: Tennessee vs. Missouri prediction

Ole Miss at Georgia

The line: Georgia -10.5

ATS pick: Ole Miss +10.5. Georgia has won just two games against the spread this season and neither of those games were against very good defenses. The Rebels are playing solid D right now and boast an offense of skill threats who can create opportunities and keep this close. 

More: Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction

Michigan at Penn State

The line: Michigan -4.5

ATS pick: Michigan -4.5. By far the toughest game so far on the Wolverines' schedule, Penn State's physical defense will make an immediate and strong impact, especially when it brings rushers against the quarterback. But Michigan has the protection to hold off the threat down the line, the skill players to create space, and the Lions' offense is not what you would call dynamic.

More: Michigan vs. Penn State prediction

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