College football picks against the spread for Week 12 games

We finally turned a profit last week in our predictions against the spread, going 5-4 with our picks and now as the 2023 college football season marches into its penultimate regular season schedule, the conference title games are starting to be confirmed and the selection committee is keeping a close eye on developments.

How are we doing? College Football HQ is 41-56-1 (.424) against the spread so far this season.

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Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Louisville at Miami

Line: Miami -1

ATS Pick: Louisville +1. The Cardinals opened as 2 point favorites, but the line has shifted in Miami's favor since then. We're riding with Louisville, which plays college football's 9th ranked run defense and should contain a Hurricanes offense that is more reliant on running the ball right now.

UCLA at USC

Line: USC -6

ATS pick: USC -6. Going against the USC defense is by now a well-known solution for any offense that has struggled, and the Bruins' attack certainly has, not scoring more than 16 points in their last three games and putting up 17 combined in the last two. USC has the pieces to move on UCLA's secondary.

Kentucky at South Carolina

Line: South Carolina -1.5

ATS pick: South Carolina -1.5. Kentucky plays its best football against teams that are average or worse, and that describes the Gamecocks. But Spencer Rattler is the superior passer here and he'll find room against the Wildcats' back seven, plus home field advantage.

Florida at Missouri

Line: Missouri -11

ATS pick: Missouri -11. Florida's defense got turned inside out for a program-record 701 yards last week against LSU and the Gators' run defense ranks 117th nationally. UF is 1-3 on the road and the Tigers are building serious momentum thanks to the trio of Cook/Burden/Schrader.

Washington at Oregon State

Line: Oregon State -1.5

ATS pick: Washington +1.5. If the Huskies' perfect season does come to an end, it'll be here. The Beavers run the ball with authority and should find consistent gainers against Washington's relatively weak rush defense. But it's hard to pick against Michael Penix and his big-play receivers to come through with the difference-making plays in the second half.

North Carolina at Clemson

Line: Clemson -7.5

ATS pick: North Carolina +7.5. Carolina's defense doesn't inspire confidence, not even against a Clemson attack that has once again underperformed. Meanwhile, the Tigers' defense and Tar Heels' offense are both among the nation's best in their respective fields. Defense and home-field advantage are in Clemson's favor, but Drake Maye has the ability to poke holes in this coverage.

Texas at Iowa State

Line: Texas -7.5

ATS pick: Iowa State +7.5. While the Cyclones have a well-disciplined pass defense that is 2nd nationally with 15 interceptions, the Longhorns have the superior presence in the front seven to frustrate Iowa State's attempts to control the game on the ground, and the skill threats to create space in the deep field. But it'll be awfully close.

Michigan at Maryland

Line: Michigan -19.5

ATS pick: Michigan -19.5. Maryland struggles to run the football consistently, ranking 94th nationally in that department, and that problem will only grow more acute against Michigan's superb run stop. But any attempt to have Taulia Tagovailoa throw the team out of trouble will be stymied by the Wolverines' elite pass defense.

Utah at Arizona

Line: Arizona -1

ATS pick: Arizona -1. Utah hasn't run the ball efficiently enough in its road games to confidently pick in its favor here, and that's been the strength of the offense overall this season. Arizona is playing remarkably well against the run and is 25th nationally throwing the football.

Georgia at Tennessee

Line: Georgia -10

ATS pick: Georgia -10. Despite the Volunteers' success running the ball this season, that unit has struggled against teams with superior defensive line play, and Georgia certainly counts among that cohort. Inconsistency at quarterback and in the pass defense will allow the Bulldogs to pull away in the second half, but this should be close early on.

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