College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 5 games
We'd like to say last weekend went well, but we'd be lying. Overall we went 3-4 in our picks against the spread — Florida State, Alabama, and Ohio State came through, but we also took Colorado to stay within 20.5 against Oregon and LSU to cover a big line against Arkansas. And for Iowa's offense to do... anything. No such luck, but we carry on to college football's Week 5 action. With caution.
How are we doing? College Football HQ is 19-15 (.558) against the spread so far this season. Let's see if we can scratch any value out of this week's games.
Lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook
USC (-21.5) at Colorado. The Trojans are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite under Lincoln Riley and are 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 overall. Picking the Buffs to stay within another big line is a risk after last week's disaster at Oregon, especially against Caleb Williams and this offense, and as the USC defense is not quite as dominant as the Ducks', but the absence of a run game or indeed star defenders Travis Hunter and Shilo Sanders could be enough to cover the line. ATS pick: USC -21.5
USC vs. Colorado game preview, prediction
Florida at Kentucky (-1). These teams are so evenly matched, it's tough to make a prediction either way. UK has played well against the rush, runs the ball well, and the defense has forced takeaways, but Florida has solid enough quarterback play and a ground game that should be able to get around the Wildcats' front line as the game wears on. Kentucky hasn't been tested yet, while Florida already has a win over a ranked Tennessee. ATS pick: Florida +1
Florida vs. Kentucky game preview, prediction
Michigan (-16.5) at Nebraska. Michigan wins the game, but is also 0-4-1 against the spread in the last 5 while the Cornhuskers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Nebraska will grind out yards and take some clock with the option offense and the Wolverines could have another slow start, especially against a superb Husker run defense, ranked 2nd nationally. ATS pick: Nebraska +16.5
Michigan vs. Nebraska game preview, prediction
Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn. The champs are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last 9 games while Auburn is 5-2 in the last 7. Georgia should wreck Auburn at the line and throw the already-anemic air game out of rhythm, but watch how well the Bulldogs can get behind Auburn's decent secondary coverages. Georgia pulls away late. ATS pick: Georgia -14.5
Georgia vs. Auburn game preview, prediction
Kansas at Texas (-16.5). The Jayhawks are 2-6 against the spread in the last 8 overall but a much better 5-1 ATS against Texas in the last 6 meetings and won big in Austin two years ago. KU is 12th nationally running the ball. Texas wins, but closer than this line suggests. ATS pick: Kansas +16.5
Kansas vs. Texas game preview, prediction
LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss. The Rebels are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 vs. SEC West teams, while LSU is 5-1-1 ATS in this series and 6-1 SU in the last 7 against Ole Miss. LSU has the pieces up front to contain the Rebs' subpar ground attack down the stretch and Jayden Daniels has weapons who can get to the second level. ATS pick: LSU -2.5
LSU vs. Ole Miss game preview, prediction
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