LSU vs. Ole Miss game preview, prediction: Who wins, and why?
A shot at the SEC West title won't be decided this early in the season, but this game could have an outsized impact on how the divisional race shakes out as No. 13 LSU hits the road against No. 20 Ole Miss in college football's Week 5 action on Saturday.
Both teams have a loss on the books: LSU in the opener against Florida State, and the Rebels on the road to Alabama a week ago as their high-flying offense was grounded in a 14-point decision against the Crimson Tide. And both are looking for revenge.
LSU took the L two years ago the last time it went to Oxford, the only loss it had in this series over the last seven seasons. Ole Miss remembers being a perfect 7-0 last fall before going into Baton Rouge and coming out with a 45-20 loss, going on to lose four of its next five games to close out. LSU took down Alabama the following week and rode all the way to an SEC West title and a bowl victory.
What can we expect from this matchup? Here's what you should watch for as LSU and Ole Miss renew their rivalry, along with our Week 5 game predictions.
LSU vs. Ole Miss preview, prediction
LSU vs. Ole Miss picks, predictions
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How to watch
When: Sat., Sept. 30
Time: 5 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
LSU vs. Ole Miss game odds
Courtesy of SI Sportsbook
Line: LSU -2.5
Total: 67.5 points
Moneyline: LSU -143 | Rebs +115
FPI pick: Ole Miss 56.6% to win
What to watch for
1. Dual threat QBs. Both defensive fronts have the added dimension of trying to stop a dynamic quarterback who is a credible threat to run the ball. Jaxson Dart is the Rebels' leading rusher with 219 yards and is averaging 5.0 ypc with 3 of the team's 10 rushing scores. Jayden Daniels was LSU's leading rusher a year ago and is 2nd with 193 yards this year and hitting 4.3 yards per touch. And he's the 6th player in FBS history with 10,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards total. Both can extend and create plays if given enough space, so it will be crucial to shut down running lanes on the outside.
2. Rebs on the ground. Ole Miss' ground attack has not lived up to expectations so far this season, ranking 10th in the SEC with 146 yards per game. Preseason All-American back Quinshon Judkins, who ran for 1,567 yards a year ago, has just 201 yards this season and is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry as he deals with a minor injury concern. The Rebels could find some lanes this week against an LSU run stop that is the SEC's third-worst, allowing over 132 yards per game.
3. Third down battle. Watch how LSU is able to defend the money down, and how well the Rebels can convert, because neither team is very good at both, respectively. LSU is 99th nationally in third down defense with opponents moving the chains 56 percent of the time, while Ole Miss is just 128th nationally converting third downs offensively, gaining the needed yards on only 24.32 percent of chances. Whoever wins on third down has a major advantage in the game.
LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction
Ole Miss' ability to move the ball at will in the air has been curtailed by some nagging injuries to skill targets and the Rebels' ground attack has not played up to preseason expectations. Dart should find some openings behind the LSU secondary early in the game and take some chances, but the Tigers' physical front seven unit will ultimately contain the Rebel backs while Jayden Daniels and the other skill targets take advantage of third down and put the game out of reach in the fourth quarter.
College Football HQ picks...
- LSU wins 31-23
- Covers the spread
- And hits the under
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