Florida State vs. Georgia score prediction by college football expert model
Neither of these teams really want to be playing in the Orange Bowl this year, not when they both entered Championship Saturday ranked among the final four teams in college football. But after Georgia lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and an undefeated Florida State was left out of the semifinal in a controversial Selection Sunday, these teams will face off in one of the more prestigious bowls.
Even as one team will be without up to 20 players, as the Seminoles will be deprived of around a dozen total starters and will be down to their third-string quarterback. Georgia also has some notable absences, but will have more key contributors on the field. What can we make of the matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ prediction model to project the game.
Florida State vs. Georgia prediction
As expected, the simulations are siding with the Bulldogs to win the game.
SP+ estimates that Georgia will defeat Florida State by a projected score of 29 to 23 and win the game by an expected 5.8 points.
The model gives Georgia a 63 percent chance to win the game outright.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 381-354-14 (51.8%) in its picks against the spread.
Point spread
Georgia is listed as the 20 point favorite against Florida State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which listed the total at 44.5 points for the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -1200 and Florida State at +700.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Florida State +20
- Georgia to win -1200
- Bet over 44.5 points
Computer predictions
Other analytic tools also suggest Georgia will win the Orange Bowl game.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.
The index projects that Georgia will win the game in 60.7 percent of its simulations, while the Seminoles come out ahead in the remaining 30.3 percent of sims.
By taking each team's scoring margin per game into account, the computer expects Georgia to defeat Florida State by a projected 4.8 points, not enough to cover the line.
College Football HQ picks: Georgia vs. Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl
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2023 Orange Bowl game time
When: Sat., Dec. 30
Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams