Oregon vs. Utah score prediction by college football analytic model
A pair of Pac-12 conference title hopefuls meet in one of college football's toughest home-field environments this weekend as No. 13 Utah welcomes No. 8 Oregon in a battle of one-loss ranked teams on Saturday.
- Utah has won 18 straight home games and 29 of the last 30
- Ducks rebounded from Washington loss by beating Wazzu moving to 3-1 in Pac-12 play
- Utah upset USC on the road last weekend
- Ducks, Utes tied for 3rd in Pac-12 with Oregon State
- What can we make of the game? Let's check in with SP+ for predictions
Oregon vs. Utah prediction
Oregon vs. Utah game predictions
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The simulations favor Oregon to defeat Utah on the road this weekend.
SP+ projects that the Ducks will beat the Utes by an estimated score of 31 to 25 with a forecasted scoring margin of 6.3 points in the game.
The model suggests Oregon has a 64 percent chance of outright victory, compared to Utah with 36 percent at home.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How accurate is the model? So far, SP+ is 212-207-11 (50.6%) straight-up and 200-222-8 (47.4%) against the spread this season.
Point spread
Oregon is a 6.5 point favorite against Utah, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 47.5 points in the game.
SI lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -250 and Utah at +188.
If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...
- Utah +6.5
- Ducks on the ML at -250
- Bet over 47.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytic tools also favor Oregon to win the game outright.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer predictive tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
The index projects Oregon to win the game in 68.7 percent of its simulations, or 13,740 of the 20,000 projections. Utah wins out in the remaining 31.3 percent of sims.
By taking the difference between each team's projected scoring margin per game, the index computer predicts Oregon will defeat Utah by 9.3 points.
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Oregon at Utah schedule
When: Sat., Oct. 28
Time: 1:30 p.m. Mountain
TV: Fox network
Stream live: fuboTV (Try for free)
More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams