College Football Playoff: 3 ways TCU can beat Georgia and win the national championship
Back in August, you couldn't even find TCU in the preseason top 25 rankings, and now it's playing against Georgia for the College Football Playoff national championship.
What a difference a few months can make, as the Horned Frogs fought off the competition, winning a series of dramatic come-from-behind games, finishing the regular season undefeated and earning the No. 3 seed in the playoff poll.
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TCU skirted past No. 2 Michigan in the College Football Playoff Fiesta Bowl semifinal game, building a quick lead and holding off the Wolverines' own furious comeback attempt, earning a date with the defending champs.
The wiseguys in Vegas may not think TCU has much of a chance — the Frogs opened as 12.5 point underdog, the biggest spread in CFP title game history — but looking back on this team's season, there's always a chance.
How can TCU pull off the upset?
College Football Playoff: 3 Ways TCU can beat Georgia
TCU vs. Georgia: How the Horned Frogs can pull it off
1. Throw Quentin Johnston at Georgia's secondary
Watching the Bulldogs struggle against Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Ohio State's vaunted passing attack in the Peach Bowl semifinal shows that elite playmakers can get behind this back seven with some regularity if they're persistent and agile enough.
Especially if the offense can work in some tempo to evade Georgia's skilled front seven pass rush. If Johnston can find some running lanes and win matchups in the deeper portion of the field, that would open up space for Taye Barber and Derius Davis to spread things out in the intermediate game.
TCU came into the College Football Playoff with the most "explosive plays" among the semifinalists, and needs to exploit that skill when on offense.
Johnston is considered a top-five NFL Draft prospect at his position and has the measurables and deep threat capacity to give Georgia's defensive backs some trouble.
Schedule: How to watch Georgia vs. TCU in the national championship
2. Contain Georgia's tight ends
While the Bulldogs' ferocious defense tends to get most of the attention, the offense showed in the Peach Bowl that it has more than enough firepower to go score-for-score with the best in the nation.
In particular, when it has both its star tight ends on the field at the same time. Georgia runs two tight end sets 59 percent of the time on offense, the most by far in college football, and it's easy to see why when looking at their talent.
Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington are both skilled route-runners in addition to physical blockers, and could pose a matchup problem with TCU's linebacker corps, not considered the strength of the team's 3-3-5 defense. Losing too many one-on-ones here could cost TCU in vital third down situations on defense and will wear it down as the game progresses.
3. Win some battles at the line and force mistakes
TCU was able to beat Michigan by playing the more physical football on both lines for long-enough stretches of the game and by confusing the Wolverines' offense into enough errors to capitalize off of.
Georgia won't make a lot of those same mistakes and presents a far more physical alignment on the defensive front, a gifted unit led by likely top-five draft pick Jalen Carter, one of the nation's premier interior pass rushers.
TCU fared better than expected in the Fiesta Bowl, using its line to open running lanes that amounted to 263 rushing yards, and that was despite losing starting back Kendre Miller to an injury.
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The Horned Frogs will need to increase its pace on offense to evade the rush, establish its rushing attack on the perimeter of the line, establish a clean pocket for quarterback Max Duggan, and work their running backs more in the pass game.
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