Toledo vs. Liberty picks, predictions: Boca Raton Bowl odds, schedule, lines

College football bowl season marches on in the week before Christmas as Toledo and Liberty square off in the 2022 Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday.

Toledo steps into bowl season on a high note, winning the MAC football championship against Ohio, its second league title since 2005, and placing first in the conference in scoring offense and total defense, while finishing third in total offensive output and 9th nationally in pass defense efficiency.

Liberty had a decent season with wins over BYU and Arkansas, and a one-point loss to Wake Forest, but lost its last three games, including to the likes of UConn and New Mexico State, and then lost coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn.

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The Rockets average 32.1 points per game and allow 25.5 while posting just under 406 total yards per outing. The Flames average four touchdowns and over 400 yards per game on offense. Both schools have relative strengths defending the run, each allowing under 147 yards per game on the ground.

What do the experts think of this matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty picks, predictions

Liberty prediction: The computer favors the Flames by the very slimmest of margins, projecting they have the 50.1 percent chance to win the game outright.

Toledo prediction: That leaves the MAC champion Rockets with the 49.9 percent to win the Boca Raton Bowl, according to the index estimates.

Point spread: Toledo comes into the matchup as the 3.5 point favorites against Liberty, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook.

Total: The book set the over/under mark at 53 points for the game.

Moneyline: Toledo -188 | Liberty + 138

How to watch, stream: The game is set for Tues., Dec. 20 at 7:30 p.m. Eastern time on the main ESPN network and streams live on fuboTV (Try for free).

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Toledo Football Betting Trends

+ Rockets are 0-4 against the spread in their last four bowl games

+ Toledo is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games against independent teams

+ The over is 8-0 in Toledo's last 8 games after an ATS win

+ The under is 4-0 in Rockets' last 4 after scoring less than 20 last time out

+ Toledo is 5-8 against the spread overall this season

Liberty Football Betting Trends

+ Flames are 5-7 against the spread overall this year

+ Liberty is 5-0 against the spread vs. a team with a winning record

+ Liberty is 1-6 ATS after a straight up loss

+ Flames are 1-5 against the spread in the last 6 after a straight up loss of more than 20 points

Toledo vs. Liberty: Keys to victory, prediction

Toledo wins if: It scores at least 30 points. Toledo's 32 point per game average reflects the earlier part of the season, with the offense cooling down late, going over 30 points in just one of its last six games, going 3-3 over that time. DeQuan Finn led the MAC with 30 total TDs and he's aided by back Jacquez Stuart, with both eclipsing 600 total rushing yards this season, with the speed to get into space and move the chains.

Liberty wins if: It doesn't turn the football over. The Flames have hit over 400 yards per game this season, among the top half of the college football standings and boast a balanced offensive attack that posts 180 rushing yards per game. But they have the 4th most giveaways, throwing 15 interceptions and losing 11 fumbles. They have to make ball security the No. 1 issue going against a Toledo team that led the MAC with 12 picks and was top 15 nationally in total and passing defense.

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College Football HQ prediction: Liberty has the pieces to make this close, including receiver Demario Douglas who is over 100 total yards per game, but the Rockets have the advantage at the skill positions and boast the superior defense to close it out late. In 10 of Liberty's last 12 games, the team that led at halftime won. Toledo 30, Liberty 22 (Toledo -3.5, Under 53)

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

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