ESPN computer predicts Big 12 rankings for 2022 college football season
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For the first time in six years, Oklahoma wasn't the Big 12 champion. That honor went to Baylor, which beat Oklahoma State, and the conference didn't take part in the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2016.
Now, the Big 12 is nearing the end of an era as Texas and Oklahoma are ready to leave and join the SEC, with Houston, UCF, Cincinnati, and BYU set to join soon.
But not yet. The Longhorns and Sooners still have a chance to run this conference, though not without a fight from some talented up and comers.
Where do things stand in the Big 12 for the 2022 season? Scroll through to see where each team placed in the ESPN Top 25 preseason football index.
College football rankings: Where the Big 12 ranks this preseason
10. Kansas
Preseason ranking: No. 97
Record prediction: 3-9
What to expect: Alright, the Jayhawks aren't exactly going to make a push for the College Football Playoff this season, but there are some tangible gains to work with here. Second-year coach Lance Leipold led KU to a road win over Texas and very close games against OU, West Virginia, and TCU, the latter two being losses by nine combined points.
That late season momentum, combined with some key pieces coming back — quarterback Jalon Daniels, running back Devin Neal, and most of its defense — could find the Jayhawks making a bowl game. Especially if they get off on the right foot in non-conference tilts against Tennessee Tech and Duke in September.
9. West Virginia
Preseason ranking: No. 52
Record prediction: 5-7
What to expect: FPI doesn't project a big improvement from the Mountaineers despite signing transfer quarterback JT Daniels, giving this team a 35 percent chance to get to six wins, but that's about it.
Daniels was unbeaten in two stints as Georgia's starter, and he inherits some solid speed on the perimeter in addition to offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, with whom he started his college career at USC.
That should make West Virginia a fun team to watch when its on offense, but coach Neal Brown has some work to do patching up the linebacker and back seven groups, especially after some high profile transfers out of the program.
8. Texas Tech
Preseason ranking: No. 48
Record prediction: 5-7
What to expect: Last season was the Red Raiders' first winning campaign since 2015 and their first bowl-eligible season since 2017, going on to beat former coach Mike Leach and Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl.
Now first-year coach Joey Maguire gets quarterback Donovan Smith for 2022, but needs to find replacements at receiver and offensive line, and repair a defense that allowed 5 TDs per game in Big 12 play.
FPI predicts a step back for Tech, with just a 46 percent chance to win six games and get back to a bowl, with 5-7 being the most likely outcome.
7. TCU
Preseason ranking: No. 42
Record prediction: 7-5
What to expect: For the first time since 2001, TCU will have a new coach. Sonny Dykes steps into the role with a mandate to get the most from what should be a half-dozen returning starters on offense.
A unit that had mixed results a year ago: it ranked second in the Big 12 in total production, but third-worst in scoring. Defensively, the Frogs were second-worst in the league in yards and points allowed, allowing around five TDs per game.
The FPI prediction model sees TCU as exactly average: 6-6 at best, with a 72 percent chance to make a bowl.
6. Kansas State
Preseason ranking: No. 39
Record prediction: 6-6
What to expect: K-State played some close games in losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Texas in Chris Klieman's third season. Now he brings on former Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein to work with Nebraska transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez. But this roster is facing some structural concerns, having to replace three O-line starters and a secondary in need of fresh blood.
5. Iowa State
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Preseason ranking: No. 27
Record prediction: 8-4
What to expect: Talk about a missed opportunity. Last preseason, the Cyclones were the trendy pick to do something, coming in at No. 7 in the first Top 25 college football rankings. Then the losses mounted and the season was lost.
So much for that momentum Matt Campbell had going with all that returning talent. Iowa State now needs a new quarterback, tight end, running back, center, and most of a functioning defense. One positive: defensive end Will McDonald, Iowa State's sack leader, returns this fall.
FPI rates the Cyclones as a middle-tier team in the Big 12, just outside the national top 25, and a virtual lock to make a bowl game, but no longer in contention to win this conference.
4. Baylor
Preseason ranking: No. 19
Record prediction: 8-4
What to expect: Dave Aranda brought Baylor from two wins to a Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl victory in two years, and has a chance to build on that work in 2022.
Blake Shapen, a 72% passer with five TDs and no picks last season, returns at quarterback, as does most of this offensive line, but Baylor has to find new inputs at receiver and running back. This defense was one of two in the Big 12 to surrender fewer than 20 points per game, and brings back most of that production.
That's enough to bump Baylor down in the eyes of the football power index prediction model, which gives this team a mere 8.7% chance to repeat as Big 12 champions.
3. Oklahoma State
Preseason ranking: No. 13
Record prediction: 9-3
What to expect: The top defense in college football a year ago lost its coordinator after Jim Knowles took the Ohio State job, in addition to three key pieces in the secondary.
Quarterback Spencer Sanders showed flashes last fall, throwing 20 TDs and finishing with over 2,800 yards, but he had 12 picks and seven games when he threw one touchdown or none. And the Cowboys won't have 1,200 yard rusher Jaylen Warren back to help him out, either.
FPI gives the Pokes a 14.1 percent shot at winning the Big 12 this season, the third-best behind Oklahoma and Texas.
2. Oklahoma
Preseason ranking: No. 8
Record prediction: 9-3
What to expect: Maybe no other big time college football outfit will look more different than the Sooners, who brought on a new head coach, two new coordinators, and a new quarterback after losing its two 2021 starters to transfer.
Brent Venables finally took the plunge in his first head coaching gig, good news for OU's defense, which returns a projected four starters. Jeff Lebby steps in as offensive play-caller and he brings on quarterback Dillon Gabriel, an 8,000-yard career passer who worked with Lebby in a top 10 offense at UCF a few years ago.
Oklahoma checks in at 27 percent to win the Big 12 this season, and a nearly 13 percent shot to make the College Football Playoff.
1. Texas
Preseason ranking: No. 6
Record prediction: 9-3
What to expect: Apparently quite a lot when looking at the football power index prediction for this team. Not only does the index put Texas in pole position for the Big 12, but gives the Horns a full 21 percent shot to make the playoff.
Granted, Steve Sarkisian comes into Year 2 with some key inputs on offense: Quinn Ewers is in at quarterback, Bijan Robinson at running back, and Xavier Worthy at receiver. Not to mention Alabama transfer wideout Agiye Hall and tight end Jahleel Billingsley. That's a pretty solid foundation to build from.
But Texas was third-worst in the Big 12 in total defense a year ago and fourth-worst in allowing 31.1 points per game, a number that rose to 35 points per game in conference matchups. We'll see where this unit is in Week 2 when Alabama lines up against it.