College football rankings: Where each SEC team lands in ESPN preseason Top 25

When you win 12 of the last 16 national championships, you get to brag a little. That's the hold the SEC has had on college football in this century, and looking over the conference these days, it's hard to see when that domination will end.

Georgia carried on the tradition last season, winning its first national championship since 1980 behind one of the greatest defensive performances the sport has ever seen.

The other team in the national championship game? That was Alabama, the SEC champion and itself by far the most dominant dynasty of the 21st century, if not for all time.

Both those teams come into the 2022 season on a short list of favorites to contend for the league and College Football Playoff once again.

But what about the rest of this conference?

Scroll through to see where each SEC team landed in the ESPN preseason football index rankings.

Where each SEC team landed in Top 25 preseason college football rankings

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings are a measure of team strength that means to predict a team’s performance. 

Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. It uses a combination of analytics, including scores to date and a team’s remaining schedule. 

Let's see where each SEC team stands this season from worst to first.

14. Vanderbilt

USA Today Images

Preseason ranking: No. 103

Record prediction: 3-9

What to expect: Not much more than we've seen from Vandy, which last season included an 0-8 record in SEC games and hasn't won in the conference since late in 2019. Vanderbilt was responsible for just under 16 points per game against SEC opposition a year ago while it allowed almost 40 points each time out. 

That's a recipe for failure that the Dores still don't have an answer for on this roster. Especially not after losing Cam Johnson, arguably its best receiver, and Tyler Steen, its best offensive lineman, both to the transfer portal.

13. Missouri

Preseason ranking: No. 55

Record prediction: 6-6

What to expect: Eli Drinkwitz has to break in a new quarterback after Connor Bazelak transferred to Indiana this offseason, and a new running back following the departure of Tyler Badie, the SEC's all-purpose yardage leader in 2021. 

But the Tigers have solid experience up front, returning up to four offensive linemen and boast a potentially great receiver room, led by Tauskie Dove, Mookie Cooper, Dominic Lovett, and especially 5-star 2022 addition Luther Burden.

Burden is the clear highlight of a top 15 national recruiting class, maybe the best Missouri has ever signed, but there are still some structural issues on this roster to solve before it can throw some elbows in the SEC East.

12. South Carolina

Preseason ranking: No. 45

Record prediction: 6-6

What to expect: The hype machine went to work on the Gamecocks after out-playing expectations in Shane Beamer's first year, winning seven games and beating rival North Carolina in the Duke's Mayo Bowl. 

And it turned up after Carolina signed a pair of Oklahoma transfers in quarterback Spencer Rattler and tight end Austin Stogner. Those additions could honestly be the difference that propels South Carolina to an eight-win season, provided this offensive line can protect its elite acquisitions better than it did last fall.

11. Arkansas

Preseason ranking: No. 29

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: FPI predicts a major step back for the Hogs, who are coming off a nine-win season, but lose top receiver Treylon Burks and have to go up against another tough schedule that includes non-SEC games against future Big 12 members Cincinnati and BYU, the latter a very strong independent squad bringing back a ton of talent that won 10 games last year. This is still a quality roster that returns quarterback KJ Jefferson, but there are more questions than answers this preseason.

10. Tennessee

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Preseason ranking: No. 28

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: Josh Heupel outpaced expectations in Year 1, winning seven games behind an offense that ranked top 10 in college football with Hendon Hooker doing some of the SEC's most efficient quarterbacking. 

But the Vols still have to upgrade a secondary unit that lost a few games a year ago. Defensively, UT allowed almost 34 points per game to SEC opposition. That won't cut it against this schedule, which includes a road trip to ACC champ Pitt and against SEC East up-and-comers Florida, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Not to mention annual adversaries Georgia and Alabama.

9. Florida

Preseason ranking: No. 25

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: Billy Napier turned Louisiana into a ranked, national recruiting destination and is in position to do the same with Florida, with far more resources and a deep talent base to work from. 

But we may not see all the results in Year 1 as Napier works to plug in some needed depth all over the field, and is putting a defense out there that allowed around four TDs per game last fall. 

UF opens up against Pac-12 champ Utah before going right into the Kentucky game, and there's a back-to-back against Georgia and Texas A&M later in the season that can throw this train off the tracks. But Napier has the tools to build something with a firmer foundation going forward.

8. Mississippi State

Preseason ranking: No. 24

Record prediction: 6-6

What to expect: This was a much-improved team last season playing behind college football's third most productive quarterback in Will Rogers, and the fourth-best defense in the SEC, but struggled badly running the ball, placing dead-last nationally with just 821 (total) yards gained on the ground.

FPI predicts the Bulldogs will take a step back this season despite the return of Rogers at quarterback and most of this improved defensive unit. But this is just a brutal schedule, full of SEC West foes in addition to Georgia and Kentucky with non-conference dates against Memphis and on the road to Arizona.

7. Kentucky

Preseason ranking: No. 20

Record prediction: 8.0-4.0

What to expect: Mark Stoops has been at UK for a decade now and, while he hasn't recruited quite as well as the league's top dogs, he's still fielded consistently competitive teams, last season winning 10 games, beating LSU and Florida, and then against a solid defensive team in Iowa in the bowl. 

Kentucky just signed its best-ever recruiting class and returns its skill core with QB Will Levis and back Chris Rodriguez returning* this fall. Levis was a 66% passer last fall with almost 2,900 yards and 24 touchdowns — though he could cut down the turnovers with 13 picks last fall — while Rodriguez piled up 1,379 yards rushing with nine TDs and a 6.1 ypc average.

*Provided he's not suspended over a reported legal issue.

6. Ole Miss

Preseason ranking: No. 17

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: These projections might be low for the Rebels, who did lose most of the talent behind the No. 6 offense in college football a year ago, but scored another pile of blue-chip players in the transfer portal. 

Ole Miss added a pair of solid transfers from USC in former quarterback Jaxson Dart and tight end Michael Trigg. Former TCU back Zach Evans is a vital addition, as is SMU rusher Ulysses Bentley. Put those players together and combine it with the Rebs' defensive improvements from last fall, and this team can still be a major player in the SEC West picture.

5. Texas A&M

Preseason ranking: No. 14

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: You get the feeling that Jimbo Fisher finally has this Aggies program in a place to make a run at the SEC title and the College Football Playoff. He just signed arguably the best recruiting class ever and brings on enough talent to push through this schedule. A&M has quality inputs on the front seven, at receiver, at running back, and a few decent options at quarterback.

But last year showed this team can lose as well as win on any given Saturday. A&M beat No. 1 Alabama, but then lost four games and was an afterthought in the national rankings. FPI forecasts more of the same for the Ags this season, which includes home dates against Miami, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, and App State and a trip to Alabama and Auburn.

4. LSU

Preseason ranking: No. 11

Record prediction: 8-4

What to expect: Brian Kelly comes into Year 1 at a program that's just two years removed from winning the College Football Playoff behind arguably the sport's greatest offense, but fell back down to earth real hard in those two years since. 

Kelly added some solid transfers and a top 15 recruiting class, but has major structural questions in the secondary, offensive line, and at quarterback. Make the wrong moves there, and LSU can get swept under a tidal wave of SEC losses real quick. ESPN's prediction model brands this as a 7- or 8-win team, which would be an improvement from the last two years under Coach O, but still a ways from what Kelly was hired to do.

3. Auburn

Preseason ranking: No. 10

Record prediction: 7-5

What to expect: FPI is very, very high on Auburn, picking it as the preseason No. 10 team in college football, but still calls it a 7-win team against this schedule. Auburn had a very tumultuous offseason with rumors around Bryan Harsin possibly losing his job in addition to a coaching exodus that a pile of transfers leaving the Plains.

Harsin will get a second year on this sideline, but with a mandate to dramatically improve this team's record from the 6-7 product it put on the field last fall. It's tough to see where Auburn added enough talent to do much better than that in 2022.

2. Georgia

Preseason ranking: No. 3

Record prediction: 11-1

What to expect: Georgia is national champion for the first time in 40 years and even if it just lost a ton of the historically dominant defense that got it there, Kirby Smart has recruited well enough to replace the lost pieces and make another run. 

Georgia brings back quarterback Stetson Bennett, and he'll have Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert, among others, on the receiving end. Georgia has a slightly easier road to the SEC title coming out of the East, but opens up in Atlanta against former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, now the head coach at Oregon.

1. Alabama

Preseason ranking: No. 1

Record prediction: 11-1

What to expect: FPI rates the Tide as the nation's best team, but places just behind Georgia in the win column according to these projections (11.3 wins to Georgia's 11.6). Will Anderson returns at linebacker after leading college football in sacks and TFLs last fall, and he spearheads a defensive unit returning an expected eight starters. 

Bryce Young returns to defend his Heisman Trophy following a 4,872-yard, 47 TD showing last season, now armed with major transfers in wideout Jermaine Burton, receiver Tyler Harrell, tackle Tyler Steen, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Bama can run the table, but watch for a road trip to Texas and a home tilt against A&M.

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